Spaceweather.com is calling the flare an X17. I don't know how they read that off the NOAA graph, but OK. Lowell and to a lesser extent had noticed that large earthquakes in the east Africa rift system can follow large flares by about 4 1/2 days. The M6.6 Malawi quake of 1989 is an example-the M7 earthquakes in, I think, southern Sudan or somewhere else east of the northern end of the western branch may be another-(that one I'm not sure of the size of the flare; the March 1989 flare was one of the biggest-I guess similar in size to today's). However, since I have been watching space weather closely over the last 3 years, there have been some large flares not followed by large East Africa quakes-but, who knows. If it is the flare that is doing it, then east Africa was not far from being subsolar. If it is the magnetic storm at ground) which seems more likely), then spaceweather.com says that a large Coronal Mass Ejection is directed at earth and could arrive as early as tonight.

OK, my previous vague prediction seems to have been a failure-so I'll show little common sense and suggest a M5+ within the east African rift system (Ethiopia, Kenya, malawi, east Congo, Zambia, Burundi, Rwanda, Mazambique). This will occur at midnight UTC between Nov 1 and 2 (the end of the 1st and beginning of the second). I'll give it +/1 24 hours.

If this does not occur, I'll give up predicting for at least a few weeks....Chris