In the past I have stated that I feel that the science of forecasting earthquakes could be thought of as being 1% science and 99% politics. I still feel that this is the case and will once again provide some details. I talk with people at the international level about this all the time and believe that I can speak with some authority on it.

With the way that much of our world now works, if you want some science to move forward quickly you almost always need to have some type of special interest group pushing it along. People become ill. They go to their doctors and ask for help. And the people and the doctors constantly demand help from their elected officials. As a result things get done. For example, more and better cures for cancer are developed every year.

Highly destructive earthquake occur only once in a while in a given area especially here in the U.S. When one does occur people get excited about the need to develop effective forecasting programs. But then with time that interest quickly fades. The result is that the science of forecasting earthquakes does not have the tremendously strong sponsorship that it really needs to have considering what a catastrophic and unexpected earthquake could do to some city here in the U.S. and to the U.S. economy in general.

One of the consequences of this situation is what appears to me to be the sad fact that although there are quite a few groups around the world both inside and outside governments which are trying to develop earthquake forecasting technology, in almost all cases they do not talk with one another or share information except at occasional conferences. It is like it is “every man, woman, and child for himself or herself.”

There is no organization anywhere on the planet that I know of or which any of my contacts knows of which has the goal of collecting forecast data from a variety of sources and combining and evaluating them to generate a life saving forecast.

As far as countries go, China could be about the best organized for collecting and sharing forecasting data. But I have heard repeatedly from reliable parties that even within that country there is much bickering between different forecasting groups and a certain lack of information sharing.

Here in the U.S. the situation is in my opinion absolutely abysmal. Even if you were totally convinced that a tremendously destructive earthquake were about to occur somewhere you could find it very difficult to find anyone to tell. On December 30, 1994 I sent a FAX to earthquake personnel at the National Earthquake Information Center (or whatever it is called these days) in Golden, Colorado. And I warned them to begin watching for what I thought might be tremendously destructive earthquake. This was a little more than 2 weeks before the devastating earthquake in Kobe, Japan.

I believe that I have discussed that FAX with U.S. government officials on a number of occasions. And what I remember being told is that probably no one at the center even saw it until perhaps January 2 or 3 of 1995 because they all went home for the holidays. I am not certain if that is what actually happened. But it sounds plausible. And I doubt that the situation has changed a bit. If you contacted FEMA today and told them that you were expecting a devastating earthquake in some area, what do you think they would do?

Last May 14 I circulated an earthquake warning for the Japan area. And on May 26 a powerful one occurred there and injured quite a few people. Even with that warning which I am almost positive at least some of their government and independent forecasting personnel saw, no one that I know of was expecting one when it occurred.

And so once again, largely because there is no special interest group trying to get some type of program developed which would enable us to collect forecasting data from a variety of groups and evaluate the data, or even some group which has the goal of checking on the effectiveness of the latest forecasting technology being developed around the world, very little is getting done very fast. And, this is not just the case with earthquake forecasting.

Several few months ago we saw the U.S. East Coast hit by an extremely expensive and life and health threatening electric power blackout. Electricity has been around for a long time here in the U.S. And we know how and why electric blackouts occur and how to prevent them. Yet this one occurred anyway. It is in my opinion an example where there should have been some group somewhere which was sufficiently well organized with sufficient resources to at least limit the blackout to a small area. There apparently was and probably still is no such group. And with earthquake forecasting the situation appears to me to be tremendously worse. I cannot see it changing soon.

Q: Want to know why earthquakes are not being effectively predicted?

A: Now you know what the main reason is, in my opinion.

Q: What can we do to improve the situation?

A: I am doing what I personally can. If you think that you have a good answer then let’s hear it!

(Hint: Whatever you suggest, unless you have a special interest group to back it, it probably won’t work.)