Hi All. Some observation I have made over the last couple of years tells me were no closer to being predict a major any more reliable now then we were 20 years ago.

Shan claims to able to predict quakes by using a stick, a wall and sunlight. What I don’t understand is how he is able to get the stick at the exact same location day after day after day. If the stick is off by 1mm it can give a false indication.

After viewing all the material EQF has put out I still can’t see how it can be used to forecast future quakes. So far he hasn’t demonstrated in public that it can. One of the main reasons he doesn’t is because he can’t. He can’t do it because it doesn’t work.

However maybe that is about to change. According to him some forecasting groups can now start using it to forecast quakes. At least that in the impression I got. It should be interesting to see how many groups of forecasters will step forward and take the plunge so to speak.

The program I was using was great for location and time, but sure left a lot to be desired for the magnitude of the expected quake. I never really knew if the quake was going to be within the magnitude range I posted, or something much larger. I’m sure glad I never had to find out.

The miniPBO sites in the Bay Area have the greatest potential of predicting a major quake in the Bay Area simply because they are only calibrated for the Bay Area. However this doesn’t mean they are fool proof. You can have a stress build up at the edge of the extreme area they cover and when this happens only one site will record the strain. The idea is to have a maximum number of sites record the stress builds up. That’s how it supposed to work. So far there has only been one small popcorn quake occur, but the site did record the stress build up for it. It wasn’t even on the fault that was being covered.

Heck. Maybe the next major quake will occur in Istanbul Turkey. All the data they have sure points that way. They knew about a year before the Izmit quake that there was going to be a large quake in Izmit. They didn’t know when the quake was going to occur, so like a bunch of idiots they didn’t prepare for it. Take Care…Don in creepy town