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Re: Forecasting Earthquakes. When Will It Be Reality???
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Posted by chris in suburbia on June 20, 2003 at 03:38:18:
Hey Don, I'm probably more positive about being able to predict imminent quakes. But, I think it will take an expensive effort with technology-something that could be done in the L.A. region: relocate quakes in near real time, put them in a 3D data base with 3D representations of faults, model them against dense network of continuous GPS stations, include block interactions, sediment compaction, creep.....do static stress calculations, look for triggers....then do this for 100 years until you get good at it. Then maybe you would get some fraction of quakes in a way that you could do something about it. I believe a seismologist friend of mine would disagree with you and say a lot of progress has been made in the last 20 years. But, this progress is more to identify areas at high risk over decadal time frames. But, it is that type of work that allows you to identify areas at to spend $ on strengthening buildings, etc... I suspect that some of the ideas (Lowell's ideas, generally) are partly correct about triggers. But, the way they are discussed on this page is not really leading anywhere. If you (Don) really were able to accurately predict locations of quakes, then that is a big part of the effort....if you can predict date and time, then getting magnitude may be sometime doable. But, I'd still like to see a truly independant scientist evaluate all your predictions....Chris
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