Re: If Only
Posted by EQF on January 25, 2003 at 10:59:10:

I disagree with you strongly regarding how people feel about the forecast information which I myself am generating at least. And I have some impressive backing for that opinion from officials in different countries.

I believe that many people in developing nations often feel abandoned and without hope when it comes to disasters such as destructive earthquakes. They may feel that people in wealthier nations consider them to be without value since they are poor. And unfortunately they are probably often correct about that.

When someone indicates that he or she is trying to do something to help them such as forecast their destructive earthquakes then it provides them with at least some hope. And they appreciate that. However, they are not mind readers. You have to do something such as post a note to a bulletin board such as this one in order to let them know that such efforts are being made.

EAR TONE AND FORECASTING RESEARCH IN GENERAL

This is something that I have mentioned in the past. And I will do that again without expecting to have any more success with it.

At some point in time before too many years have elapsed there will probably be a device which scientists can plug into the wall. And when an earthquake is approaching a red light on the top will flash.

When that day arrives most of the research which people are doing on Ear Tones and other forecasting procedures will lose most or all of any of the value it might have had. If you want to actually accomplish something then the time to do it is now. And that means circulating and exchanging data and ideas. Perhaps someone will run off with your ideas and you will not get any credit for them. But at least you will have the satisfaction of knowing that something you did along those lines mattered. Otherwise all of the work may simply turn to dust with age.

EARTHQUAKE POLITICS

Exaggerating for emphasis I would propose that the science of forecasting earthquakes is 1% science and 99% politics. And one of the main reasons that forecasters with even good technical procedures may fail is because they do not know how to deal with the political hurtles which block the way. Not being a geologist I have had to learn how to deal with both the technical problems and the political ones. And the later are the worst. So, even if the technical problems with Ear Tone research etc. can be solved there are still the political ones. If anyone posting notes here believes that he or she can get past them then I think that is wonderful though not very realistic.

There are plenty of people who claim they can forecast earthquakes. And perhaps some of them can. But did you see anyone forecast that Mexico earthquake and save any lives, or the one before it in Italy? At least I myself had advisories active at the times of both of them even if my proposed locations were not accurate.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: If Only - Don in Hollister  12:53:36 - 1/25/2003  (17873)  (1)
        ● Re: If Only - EQF  06:08:23 - 1/26/2003  (17878)  (0)