Hi All. After talking to number of people at the AGU as well as other locations this year I learned that the quake at Parkfield is expected. However there is one slight catch to this. They don’t know if it’s going to be the usual M>6.0 quake, or a repeat of the one that occurred 1857, or a combination of the two as was seen in 1857.

I have a pretty good idea as to the where, but have none what so ever as to when and how big. I’m not even going to speculate on that. I do know that the amount of strain seen at the data sites does not indicate the size of an expected quake. As it has been seen in the past a lot of strain doesn’t mean a large quake, nor does a little strain mean a small quake.

The number of sites indicating a strain build up may be a good indication of the magnitude of the quake. Only time will show that.

A lot of time, effort and money have been put into Parkfield with nothing to show for it at present time. However the expected quake hasn’t occurred either and that after all is the quake they are looking for.

After all said and done no one at present time knows when and or where the next large quake is going to strike. This is the main reason why everyone should prepare for the next quake. I have learned through reading some of the various surveys that only 30% of the people living in areas where a large quake could center are prepared for that quake. I can’t find the words to describe what I thing about remaining 70%. Being prepared for the next major quake doesn’t mean you will survive the quake, but it will sure increase the odds of your doing so. Take Care…Don in creepy town