Hi Lowell,

Thanks for the information. Its easy to miss if you're not paying attention. But while we are on this topic, I'd like to have some feedback from you or anyone else on the board regarding my Alaskan prediction.

To me it seemed very obvious something had changed in seismic activity and I felt it was going to be in the Kenai Peninsula due to the earthquakes appearing in the circular area around it. The magnitude of 6.3+ seemed well within the parameters of what to expect, but I missed the location by many miles and the window was a large one.

So what's the missing ingredients to a better prediction in this case? The geomagnetics at the time were quite active just days before the event. There was the 4.0 quake to the east on the border between Alaska and Canada. The seismological reports indicate that the lower part of Alaska is going east while the northern section is going west. At the time I made the prediction on 10/9, none of these events were present, yet this is the second largest event on the fault in question since 1912.

Is anyone aware of anything else that might have been present on 10/9 which would have tightened this prediction, or would the general consensus have been to sit and wait for other events which might have refined the location in question?

I'm curious and I'd like to see what I can learn from this experience.

Petra