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Posted by Roger Hunter on October 10, 2002 at 17:03:39:
Hi all; Here's a new quiz for you; who is the better predictor, A or B? In each case, a "." marks a day without quakes, a"*" is a quake and the
"^^^^^" is a prediction window. There are 60 days in the time period.
Each set has predictions for "a quake in the 5 day window".
Set A has 28 quakes including 3 of mag. 7+ as the largest.
*
* *
* *
* * *
* * * * * **
*.*..*.*......*..*.**.*............*......*...........**....
^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^
Set A has 16 of 28 quakes in its' 3 windows including all 3 of the 7+ quakes.
Set B has 37 quakes, two of which are mag. 7.5 (highest count days)
* *
* *
* **
* **
* * * ** * * ***
*.*..*.*..*...*..*.**.*.*...*.....**..*...*.**..***..****...
^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^
Set B has 8 of 45 quakes in its' 5 windows, none larger than 4.0.
Set A has only 3 hits compared to Set B's 5 hits.
Again, the number of quakes doesn't matter.The point of this group is to show that the number of hits is only part of
the value. Set A wins with fewer but much less probable predictions. Set B
is getting some hits from aftershocks which is another problem. Discussion anyone? Are these too simple for you? Shall I stop? Roger
Follow Ups:
● Re: Test 4 - Mary Antonelli 22:22:50 - 10/10/2002 (17009) (1)
● Re: Test 4 - Canie 22:29:49 - 10/10/2002 (17010) (0)
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