prediction contest-unusual rules
Posted by chris in suburbia on September 22, 2002 at 15:14:20:

In honor of the absent Lowell, let's try a contest with unusual rules. You have 48 hours from now to play. That means you have to enter by midnight UT Tuesday 24th. If you can not read and understand rules, you should not play.
Let's call this the Isidore earthquake contest.
Here are the rules:
1: enter by midnight UT Tuesday 24th.
2: Your must predict an earthquake at least 24 hours in advance of its occurring.
3: The location of the prediction must be within 220 km (about 2 deg of latitude) of the path of the center of Hurricane Isidore-and that this is valid as long as Isidore has tropical storm status. The past path of Isidore is OK also, subject to rule 2.
4: The magnitude must exceed M2.5. I'll look at the NEIC page, but maybe Roger or entrants can help if there is a M>2.5 that does not appear on the NEIC page.
5: The prediction must be for an earthquake that occurs within 10 days of passage of the center (or within 24 hours ahead of the passage).
6: you must predict time, lat-long, and magnitude.
7: It is valid to predict that there will be no earthquake that fits the guidelines.

This is not as unlikely as you might think-a couple months ago there was a M>4 in the Gulf of Mexico off of Mexico that Isodore may pass within 220 km of, and there was just a M3.7 south of New Orleans. You get to not only predict earthquakes, but also the future path of the storm.

Have fun-Hmm prize.....the honor of winning?
Hope this livens up the discussions...
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: prediction contest-unusual rules - Canie  22:35:50 - 9/22/2002  (16754)  (1)
        ● Re: prediction contest-unusual rules - Canie  16:44:30 - 9/25/2002  (16774)  (2)
           ● oops-correction - chris in suburbia  17:56:45 - 9/25/2002  (16777)  (1)
              ● Re: oops-Chris - look here - Canie  18:43:35 - 9/25/2002  (16778)  (0)
           ● Guerrero Mexico 5.1 - chris in suburbia  17:53:56 - 9/25/2002  (16776)  (0)
     ● Re: New Madrid, MO - Petra Challus  21:23:45 - 9/22/2002  (16753)  (0)