FORECAST FROM NE CHINA/RUSSIA (MS 7.2) - 06/29/02

A strong earthquake hit in the region of northeastern China/Russia
this evening. Preliminary determinations place the event at a depth of
about 555 km with Mw 7.2. Despite the depth of this event, surface ground
motion at distance was substantial as registered on seismograms. It is
therefore likely that this event will result in far-field triggering.

Preliminary epicentral data for this event are:

O: 28JUN2002 17:19:30 43.8N 130.7E mb=6.6 NEIR PRIAMURYE-NORTHEASTERN CHINA B

Today's epicenter is at distances from Vanuaut, Sumatera, and Iran
where strong (Ms>=6) earthquakes have occurred in the past several days.
These events probably aided in triggering the earthquake in northeast
China today.

SEISMIC HISTORY OF AREA:

Strong deep earthquake are relatively common in this region, but
generally are non-destructive as few live in the felt area and deep
earthquakes are generally only felt slightly on the surface.
Since 1900 eight earthquakes of Mw>=7 have occurred in this region
as follows:

The following earthquakes have been recorded in the region
bounded by 45.7N-41.7N 127.5 - 133.5E since 1900 with Mw>=7.0

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR N LAT E LONG DEP MW

7 31 3 23 10 1917 42.500 131.000 460 7.8
4 10 2 3 56 1918 43.500 130.900 550 7.5
7 10 5 49 53 1940 43.600 131.000 580 7.3
1 11 1 35 32 1946 44.883 130.617 560 7.2
1 3 12 48 30 1957 44.033 131.033 600 7.4
9 29 0 44 2 1973 42.000 131.000 600 7.2
7 21 18 36 32 1994 42.340 132.865 471 7.3
4 8 13 10 36 1999 43.649 130.460 580 7.1

Effects are generally similar. For example, the Sept. 29, 1973 event
was felt in Fukushima, Sapporo and Tokyo Japan; the 1957 earthquake was
felt, but did no damage; the event on Jan 11, 1946 also was barely
felt on the surface, as were the 1994 and 1999 earthquakes. Today's
earthquake is the largest in the region since 1994.

PAST OCCURRENCES (MW>=7.2)

Following are large shocks following previous events of Mw>=7.2
within 200 km of todays' northeast Asian earthquake:

7 21 18 36 32 1994 42.340 132.865 471 7.3
MAIN JUL 31 1917 42.5N 131.0E 460 7.8

The first earthquake to be recorded of Mb>=5.5 after this
event was on August 20, 1917 in Greece (Mb 5.8).

MAIN APR 10 1918 43.5N 130.9E 550 7.5

4 13 0 51 15 1918 -8.000 85.000 0 6.5 South Indian Ocean
4 21 22 32 25 1918 33.700 -117.000 0 6.8 Southern California
4 25 2 22 35 1918 34.500 41.800 33 5.7 Eastern Turkey

MAIN JUL 10 1940 43.6N 131.0E 580 7.3

7 14 5 52 53 1940 51.800 177.500 80 7.8 Central Aleutians (Rat Is.)
7 14 15 31 0 1940 35.983 140.050 40 5.8 Off East Coast Honshu
7 15 15 23 11 1940 52.000 178.000 70 5.8 Central Aleutians (Rat Is.)
7 16 3 17 33 1940 20.500 -155.000 0 5.6 Hawaii
7 17 6 36 22 1940 36.800 71.500 15 5.7 Hindu Kush
7 17 11 44 44 1940 36.800 70.700 15 5.6 Hindu Kush
7 19 4 53 26 1940 37.500 57.500 13 5.8 Northern Iran
7 20 1 53 53 1940 -15.500 -173.000 0 6.0 Samoa
7 21 5 16 3 1940 -16.000 169.500 160 6.0 Vanuatu Islands
7 21 15 38 25 1940 2.500 121.000 0 6.2 Celebes Sea
7 21 18 28 15 1940 -22.000 179.000 550 5.8 Fiji/Tonga
7 24 22 15 2 1940 34.500 34.500 0 5.7 Central Turkey

MAIN JAN 11 1946 44.8N 130.5E 560 7.2

1 15 4 9 15 1957 -2.000 -76.500 100 6.0 Northern Peru
1 17 22 26 52 1957 33.133 137.617 360 6.2 Southern Japan
1 19 5 16 37 1957 -21.500 -179.000 650 6.5 Tonga
1 20 13 52 0 1957 28.000 130.500 0 5.7 Northern Ryukyu Isl.
1 20 18 12 49 1957 37.200 71.000 100 5.8 Hindu Kush
1 22 11 18 24 1957 -4.820 28.730 0 6.3 Malawi,Congo
1 24 1 11 19 1957 -6.100 146.400 127 6.0 Papua, New Guinea
1 24 7 16 29 1957 -12.500 -78.000 0 6.2 Southern Peru
1 25 3 36 47 1957 51.500 -177.000 0 6.5 Central Aleutians
1 28 8 16 19 1957 -15.500 -173.000 0 6.5 Samoa
1 30 12 8 27 1957 65.590 -133.640 15 5.8 Yukon Territory, Canada
1 30 15 29 3 1957 -20.100 -174.100 33 6.1 Tonga
1 31 0 47 0 1957 -22.000 -66.000 150 5.6 No. Chile/Argentina

MAIN SEP 29 1973 42.0N 131.0E 600 7.2

9 30 6 17 52 1973 35.673 140.636 56 5.9 Off East Coast, Honshu
10 1 14 16 23 1973 35.758 140.699 55 5.6 Off East Coast, Honshu
10 1 23 44 12 1973 -4.521 151.455 224 5.6 New Britain
10 2 12 23 23 1973 -8.745 115.360 92 5.6 South of Sumatera
10 3 8 19 40 1973 -13.660 166.703 72 5.6 Northern Vanuatu Islands
10 3 11 8 32 1973 -32.960 -178.870 33 5.9 Kermadec Islands
10 5 5 45 27 1973 -32.987 -71.916 14 6.5 Central Chile
10 5 7 7 34 1973 -32.937 -71.877 24 5.6 Central Chile
10 5 9 22 0 1973 66.950 -157.850 100 5.9 Central Alaska
10 6 15 7 37 1973 -60.800 -21.500 33 7.5 North of Iceland
10 9 7 57 31 1973 -14.233 167.228 9 6.4 Northern Vanuatu Isl.
10 11 2 7 53 1973 0.636 -29.514 33 6.3 East African Rift (Congo)
10 12 2 54 6 1973 37.700 71.880 5 5.6 Hindu Kush

MAIN JUL 21 1994 42.3N 132.9E 471 7.3

7 22 16 57 48 1994 -7.777 158.417 19 6.0 Solomon Islands
7 23 7 22 6 1994 16.714 -61.367 68 5.8 Leeward Isl. Caribbean
7 23 12 58 1 1994 -15.788 -173.030 41 5.9 Samoa
7 24 6 7 2 1994 -5.726 153.983 51 5.6 New Britain
7 24 9 6 6 1994 -17.889 -172.967 33 5.6 Samoa/Tonga
7 24 14 47 48 1994 37.006 71.662 120 5.6 Hindu Kush
7 24 17 55 40 1994 -16.966 167.574 21 6.6 Vanuatu Islands
7 24 21 57 27 1994 -10.654 113.269 34 6.0 South of Bali
7 25 4 39 17 1994 -56.967 -25.497 33 5.6 South Sandwich Islands
7 25 15 46 46 1994 -7.758 158.452 29 5.6 Solomon Islands
7 25 22 0 23 1994 -56.362 -27.365 81 6.6 South Sandwich Islands
7 26 1 46 33 1994 -10.263 113.590 33 5.7 South of Bali
7 28 8 3 2 1994 -47.278 100.224 10 5.8 South Indian Ocean
7 29 0 17 45 1994 52.398 -168.333 11 6.0 Fox Islands, Aleutians
7 29 7 53 28 1994 -16.984 167.739 14 5.9 Vanuatu Islands
7 31 5 15 40 1994 32.558 48.369 43 5.6 Southwestern Iran
8 2 14 17 52 1994 52.428 158.044 145 6.0 Kamchatka
8 3 14 59 58 1994 21.514 93.981 34 5.8 Myanmar
8 4 21 39 2 1994 -24.090 -179.925 506 5.6 Tonga Isl.
8 4 22 15 38 1994 -6.338 131.575 33 6.2 Ceram Sea

MAIN APR 08 1999 43.6N 130.5E 580 7.1

4 9 8 16 34 1999 -42.056 84.269 10 5.6 South Indian Ocean
4 9 12 16 4 1999 -26.468 178.295 633 6.2 Tonga/Fiji
4 11 16 50 44 1999 -6.104 148.587 87 6.1 Papua, New Guinea
4 12 9 41 16 1999 -20.036 168.575 43 5.9 Vanuatu Islands
4 13 10 38 48 1999 -21.422 -176.460 164 6.8 Tonga Islands
4 15 13 54 44 1999 -6.346 146.976 32 5.9 Papua, New Guinea
4 17 0 56 25 1999 19.248 -155.489 11 5.9 Hawaii
4 20 19 4 12 1999 -31.828 -178.816 110 6.5 Kermadec Islands
4 21 11 8 28 1999 -29.679 -178.474 237 5.6 Kermadec Islands
4 22 22 19 37 1999 -27.953 26.635 5 5.7 Republic of So. Africa
4 23 18 56 27 1999 13.123 145.142 53 5.9 Guam, Marianas
4 24 8 45 19 1999 -17.911 -178.547 571 5.6 Tonga/Samoa
4 26 18 17 26 1999 -1.593 -77.645 158 6.0 Northern Peru/Ecuador
4 29 7 46 9 1999 28.867 131.148 35 5.9 Northern Ryukyu Isl.
4 29 18 26 38 1999 -35.781 -102.900 10 5.8 East Pacific Rise
4 30 19 28 49 1999 -31.646 -71.681 52 5.6 Central Chile

Summary of far-field events following NE Asia mainshocks:

The most likely events of Mw>=5.5 (based on past occurrences)
in the next 10 days appear to be:
(Number in paranthesis indicated number of times and event of M>=6
has followed a Ryukyu mainshock within 2-3 weeks).

Tonga/Samoa - around 15S (8)
Events in this region are almost certain in this magnitude range
in the next 15 days on the basis of past history.

Hindu Kush (5)
Central Chile (near 34S) especially between 69-72 W
South Indian Ocean (4)
Eastern Turkey to Iran (4)
Vanuatu Islands esp. north of 16S. (4)
Central Aleutians (3)
Honshu or off east Coast of Honshu
Ryukyu Islands (Northern) or southern Japan

The most likely events of Mw>=5 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Peru
East African Rift Valley
Papua, New Guinea to Solomon Islands
South of Sumatera

Other possible events of Mw>=4.5 in the next 10 days appear to be:

North of Iceland
Central and southern Alaska
Leeward Isl. Caribbean or Puerto Rico
Kamchatka/No. Kuriles
No/So. Iran
Unimak/Fox Islands, Aleutians

Possible Events (Ml>=3) in the U.S. and Canada include:

Southern California east of Los Angeles
San Francisco region,
Salt Lake City,
Mammoth Lakes

General:

The most likely upcoming activity would be aftershocks in the
Vanuatu and Japan region and in the Hindu Kush area.