Will Technology Solve the Earthquake Prediction Puzzle?

While modern technology primarily in the use of computers is allowing the scientific community to move, forward faster than ever in resolving technically advanced problems, our research demonstrates the elements involved in solving the earthquake prediction puzzle using computer technology.

When computers were originally developed they often included programming where computers were given information and the computer learned by examining the information. If we look at how computers play hypothetical war game scenario's, our research focused on providing a prediction program wherein the computer learns from the information it receives and allows it to play possible earthquake prediction scenario's.

In looking for the answer to our question, we must provide the computer with a value system to help it evaluate the various data it receives. The computer might appraise this information, and may assign a value for the data in the following manner:

1. Background seismicity – Value 10% Probability, 2. Increased seismicity –
Value 20% Probability, 3. Solar Flare Data - Value 30% Probability

As the computer evaluates this information it will be able to weigh the value of each known event and through programmed learning capabilities will be able to assess the difference between the background seismicity and increased probability.

In researching future epicenters of potentially large earthquakes, the areas of greatest risk have been narrowed down by past and present research. Therefore, one part of our equation for the resolution to prediction has already been solved. Our remaining obstacle therefore, is when will this earthquake occur?

For the researcher and the computer programmers a new vista has opened. Not only is more obtainable data available about past earthquake fault behavior because database information is readily accessible for programming, we also have more known precursory data to add to the evaluation process. The computer can also work 24 hours a day in data collection, whereas the human scientist has a life to live and cannot be in attendance at all times.

Therefore, in conclusion, earthquake prediction in the future may be possible to resolve when the correct selection of data is chosen for programming and the programmers apply this data in a format, which allows the computer to compare, theorize, analyze and hypothesize from the data collected. While a scientist, can never be replaced by a computer, the computer can indeed enhance the scientists ability in collecting data and utilizing it to its greatest capability.

Thus, in asking for some feedback on this issue, one must ask, if you were going to
provide information to a computer and the computer must weigh the importance of the data received, what elements have a greater data value than other elements and in what is the percentage of element value?

Give it a little thought. Thanks….Petra & Don