Hi Don,

While there is some real certainty that the Northbay Area has picked up dramatically in earthquake activity, especially when you include the series of 4.0 quakes near Ukiah, we do have another place that we should take as an equal in a heads up fashion.

This is Pacifica. The number of small quakes occurring in this area over the past few months shows a dramatic increase over the past few years. Though the quakes are to small to be cataloged, they have been numerous. While one could not call it clustering, its just quaking all of the time.

So between these two area's its rather a curious set of circumstances. We've had larger quakes in the Northbay, but yet numerous quakes at Pacifica, so what does this denote? At this point in time, we have no idea. Either one could go at any moment or stay like they are for another few years.

But I seriously doubt the Bay Area will last another five years without at least a 6.0 or something larger. We also have to remember that a 6.0 in a densely populated area could cause heavy damages. A few of those and it could be just as bad as one 7.0.

So while we are on this topic, let me post a reminder about water heaters. For some strange reason, in California they are always elevated on top of some little wooden stand. New state code requires they be strapped at 1/3rd from the top and 1/3rd from the bottom. If you've got just that middle strap the water heater may give way and turn and slip out of that holder. So take a few minutes this weekend and get something and fasten the thing and then you can be a little more certain you won't be having your house toasted when the next moderate quake rolls through your area.

Petra