This is a bit late, as it has taken some time to get set up here in the east.
But, I did want to add my CONGRATULATIONS to Don on his earthquake
advisory for the Bay area. I think that anyone who has followed the progress
of this advisory and the subsequent earthquakes including the M 5.2 in the
San Jose area on May 13, may be having questions on Don's method. The
method, for the moment, must remain proprietory. Don does receive his
basis data from outside, but uses his own knowledge of the faults and earthquake
history as well has his intuition and local data sets to make his advisories.
I have emphasized to Don, and I emphasize to you that this added input Don
includes, makes the posted forecasts his own. For example, the advisory which
Don received did not mention a large earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area,
but did give data on a series of smaller events. Don took this data, added strain,
ULF, and other data, and his own experience working with the data to develop
his advisory and forecast, which despite small errors was essentially correct.
So, once again my congratuations on an excellent advisory.
I would challenge anyone to find a better example of precison earthquake forecasting
in the region of California on the web or any where else.