Hi All. Have you ever wondered about the 30-year time frame that has been given for the next major quake in the Bay Area, and other locations? I have so I went looking to see if I could find something that would explain the reason for that figure and I found what I was looking for. There isn’t any scientific reasoning behind that time frame.

I found this in the Contra Costa Times Posted on Mon, Feb. 04, 2002. Take Care…Don in creepy town

“A year seemed too short to be realistic, Schwartz said. And 100 years was too long for people to want to retrofit their homes or put up safer buildings.”

"We were looking for a time frame that was meaningful for the population living here now," he said. "Thirty years is the length of a mortgage, and people can relate to that."

• Contra Costa Times