Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit
Posted by chris in suburbia on April 16, 2002 at 04:31:48:

Don or Lowell, you may want to provide a link to Don's post of several weeks ago-I don't recall it (but don't read most of the predictions). I tend to read Lowell's evaluation's of Don's predictions, and am, I correct that the predictions of larger magnitude earthquakes have not been so accurate (I see on of these predicted now and then, and then don't see an evaluation on it....but maybe I just can't keep track). Following Lowell's ideas from more than a decade ago, I think we may want to look at the areas that first become active, if only with a swarm of 2s, or a 3 or so, as areas of interest for the next couple of years. Maybe the west end of the Northridge aftershock zone, or Hollywood, or Bombay Beach. Geysers was the first to light up, but I guess it was then only place not to shut off. Lowell may want to check with Kate H. that there is not something wrong with the Network.

I'd have to agree that if there is a M>6 anywhere in the Bay area in that time window that it will be a prediction of interest, as Don does not make predictions like this (so he will not have the criticism that if you predict large earthquakes often enough you, or someone else, will eventually get one or a near miss).
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Lowell  08:47:00 - 4/16/2002  (14928)  (1)
        ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Mary C.  09:23:21 - 4/16/2002  (14929)  (1)
           ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Lowell  10:33:45 - 4/16/2002  (14930)  (1)
              ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Mary C.  13:30:05 - 4/16/2002  (14935)  (1)
                 ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Lowell  15:01:10 - 4/16/2002  (14937)  (1)
                    ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Roger Hunter  15:23:54 - 4/16/2002  (14939)  (1)
                       ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Mary C.  16:38:01 - 4/16/2002  (14942)  (2)
                          ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Canie  23:42:37 - 4/16/2002  (14956)  (0)
                          ● It was just an observation . . . . - Tony  20:39:19 - 4/16/2002  (14948)  (0)