> ...Nevertheless, the general rule must still apply, if something does happen, the first published advisory, whoever it is from must get the credit (or discredit if nothing happens). <

Apparently I don't understand the goal of predicting earthquakes on a bulletin board. If the purpose is to improve accuracy and develop better ways to predict, doesn't it slow the learning process if only one person is credited with predicting each moderate or major earthquake? Not many of those occur, so wouldn't learning be faster if supporting predictions also were accepted if they were derived independently? One way to insure independence is to submit predictions privately for tracking rather than posting them publicly - but that would prevent published warnings that might help residents protect property and save lives.
If pharmaceutical companies studied only one patient at a time by one doctor at a time, most life-saving medications might never be approved. Accurate earthquake predictions might save even more lives.

Mary C.