The Vancouver Island Quake and Don's forecast.

An earthquake of Mb 4.5 occurred in the Vancouver Island Region today. This event had been
Anticipated in Don's forecast #13968 for and event of Mb 3.5-5.0 within two days of April 2, 2002.

The event occurred at:
O: 04APR2002 04:29:11 50.76N 129.88W ML=4.5 NEIS VANCOUVER ISL, CANADA REGION

Source:

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

Don's forecast had been for:

F: 02APR2002 +/- 2day 49.6N 127.6W M 3.5-5.0 Nootka, Vancouver Island (within 35 km)

While this forecast is not as precise as normal for Don, it is for a larger event in the Vancouver
Island region which is what occurred this morning. This is the largest earthquake in the Vancouver
Island region since January 23, 2001 when a Ml 4.8 occurred south of today's epicenter so this is not
An insignificant regional event, and the match between forecast and event is probably significant
In terms of what it says about Don's technique.

Don's forecast is somewhat garbled - must have had too much Corona beer that night. But
The location is given correctly (with relation to Nootka) in the body of the text as is the
Window of occurrence. Don - you must be more care in using the form. There were two
Differences between the prediction as registered in the form and the prediction as recorded in
The body of the text. I am assuming that the form was the incorrect version.

Following is Don's complete forecast.

Nootka, Vancouver Island Earthquake Forecast (3.5-5.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on March 21, 2002 at 09:30:28:

Magnitude: 3.5-5.0Ml
From: 03/31/2002UTC - To: 04/02/2002UTC
Location: Nootka, Vancouver Island
Lat: 49.6N - Long: 127.6W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. Having replenished by supply of raw onion and garlic with horseradish mustard and Corona Beer I should be
good for at least another week.

Looking for a 3.5 to 5.0 quake at 49.6N/127.6W. This is about 60Km west of Nootka, Vancouver Island. Should occur on
04/02/2002.

The window will open on 03/31/2002 and will close on 04/04/2002.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/13968.html