Thanks Roger,
A note to predictors might be useful here. The event at Santa Rosa today
was a near perfect match for Don's forecast, however only received a score
of 56% because it occurs in the vicinity of a high seismicity zone - the Geysers.
If you want to win these contests you will need to do either one of two things:

1) limit the regional extent of your prediction
or
2) choose to make predictions only for areas which have few events.
or
3) increase the lower magnitude limit of your predictions so only larger
events are included, thus limiting the background probability.

Even with a perfect match, you can do no better than the assigned background
probability of the prediction itself.