Contest update - problems
Posted by Roger Hunter on March 23, 2002 at 11:09:13:

Here are the latest results.

The relative standings have not changed but the gap has narrowed a bit.

But an interesting situation has come up.

The "best-fitting" quake is not the least probable quake.

I define "best fit" as closest to the midpoint of time and location and largest mag. within the outer time and space limits. In this case, a quake closer to the date center was found which has a higher probability than one further out.

Now it seems to me that anything inside the predicted ranges is a hit for that parameter. Closer to center is an arbitrary choice on my part to make decisions easier.

Does anyone wish to contest that choice? Should I find the least probable quake within the hits? Or would that be data selection too?

What seems fair to you?

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Contest update - problems - Lowell  14:58:20 - 3/23/2002  (14020)  (2)
        ● Re: Contest update - problems - Roger Hunter  17:00:18 - 3/23/2002  (14028)  (0)
        ● Re: Contest update - problems - Roger Hunter  16:47:45 - 3/23/2002  (14025)  (1)
           ● Re: Contest update - problems - Lowell  17:09:58 - 3/23/2002  (14029)  (1)
              ● Re: Contest update - problems - Roger Hunter  17:54:34 - 3/23/2002  (14030)  (1)
                 ● Re: Contest update - problems - Lowell  19:04:14 - 3/23/2002  (14032)  (1)
                    ● Re: Contest update - problems - Roger Hunter  19:13:03 - 3/23/2002  (14035)  (2)
                       ● agreed nt - Lowell  23:52:30 - 3/23/2002  (14042)  (0)
                       ● Postscript: all read - Roger Hunter  19:18:59 - 3/23/2002  (14036)  (1)
                          ● Re: Postscript: all read - Lowell  23:54:50 - 3/23/2002  (14043)  (1)
                             ● Re: Postscript: all read - Roger Hunter  05:23:34 - 3/24/2002  (14047)  (1)
                                ● Re: Postscript: all read - 2cents  11:52:48 - 3/24/2002  (14060)  (1)
                                   ● Re: Postscript: all read - Roger Hunter  13:19:14 - 3/24/2002  (14063)  (1)
                                      ● Re: Postscript: all read - 2cents  14:58:34 - 3/24/2002  (14068)  (1)
                                         ● Thanks. n/t - Roger Hunter  15:34:45 - 3/24/2002  (14069)  (0)
     ● Re: Contest update - problems - Petra Challus  14:34:20 - 3/23/2002  (14019)  (0)