Lowell;

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you said:
In this case the question is: what is the probability that an event within the magnitude
window forecast would occur within a 7-day span and within 120 km of the forecast
epicenter. Simple probability of occurrence of an earthquake should not be the
important factor, but what the probability that the forecast would have been correct
given the expanded limits which would include the event outside the forecast
boundaries.
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and what I do in the case where the closest in time or space is not within the predicted boundary is to expand the boundary in question by 10% and look again. I do this until I get a hit or until the outer limit is reached..

Then I get the probability based on the new parameters.

That's why each one can be different. Or not, in the case of a good hit.

But still, in either case, do we want least probable or best fit?

Roger