Hello Everyone,

This is a message about hope.

In the past two days, I'm not certain who posted the message as I'm writing this off line at this moment, however, someone said that the public is not yet ready for earthquake predictions.

While I can agree that the public is not ready to receive a first time prediction for a magnitude 7 or 8 quake, I do believe they are ready for predictions/forecasts for quakes between the 3.0 and 6.0 magnitude variety.

One thing I think we may forget at times, which is really quite important is that on this board we are all evolving toward that moment in time. We are learning, teaching and sharing our understanding of the seismic process and out there in cyberland, our visitors are learning along with us. This is a very hopeful effort.

We should all be aware though that prediction is not the answer to survival in itself. Preparedness is the first step and the prediction is the last. No matter what circumstances one may find themselves in during an earthquake, preparedness be it in the physical or mental sense is what will make the difference in surviving. Even in underdeveloped countries where prediction would be very beneficial in consideration of the types of construction, one still needs to know what they should do when a quake arrives. It may be best to run outside of an unreinforced masonry building, but perhaps wearing a helmet, carrying a whistle and at night a flashlight as well may be the best preparedness before they leave their nest.

Don and I received a great surprise at the AGU last December when we were discussing earthquake preparedness with various scientists we visited. Amazingly they knew absolutely nothing about preparedness. Most all of them thought they should run outside, no matter where they were. We became the teachers and that was rather odd. But I know now, some of them are better prepared because we visited the AGU.

No one can more aptly express the process of Earthquake Forecasting than our own poster, Lowell Whiteside, so I'll leave that part of this discussion for him. A bright light from a very dark place resides with his thoughts on this topic.

Therefore I say, ye be of hope. We are evolving toward something that one day will bring the light of life to many.

Petra

• The Seismic Safety Zone