FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST FOR HINDU KUSH MW 7.2 (PRELIMINARY)
(MARCH 03, 2002)

A strong Mw 7.2 earthquake occurred in the Hindu Kush region of
Afghanistan today.

NEIS gives the event parameters as:

O: 03MAR2002 12:08:06 36.4N 70.45E MW=7.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, (195 km depth)

GEOMAGNETIC PRECURSORS:

This followed a dramatic and sudden change in the
Hp geomagnetic field which peaked at 12:37 UT. region this morning.
A dramatic change in the He field intensity (field perpendicular
to the earth) began about 11:53 UT and reach it's minimum at 12:06
to 12:08 UT simultaneously with the occurrence of the Hindu Kush
Earthquake. The He change appears to have been caused by a strong increase
in electrons entering the ionosphere at this time as the electron
flux increased nearly tripled during this time.
For information on the geomagnetic field see:

http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/geomag/20020303_G10mag_1m.txt

For information on the electron flux see (look at electron flux >0.6 Mev):

http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/particle/20020303_G10part_5m.txt

TIDAL TRIGGERING

The region of Hindu Kush typically shows increased activity at this
date in the lunar month (the 19th day). In the forecast from Dec 2, 2001
it was noted:

"December 03 is the NINTEENTH day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

...

Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05"

This is a relatively high significance and suggests that tidal
triggering was possibly involved in today's earthquake.

THE WAR:

Studies of seismicity have shown that recorded earthquakes tend to increase
in region of warfare, especially when heavy bombardment is occurring.
It has been argued that this effect is merely over-reporting due to
greater watchfulness of areas during wartime. However, it is also possible
that continued small ground movements caused by exploding weaponry,
especially the huge daisy bombs currently used in Afghanistan, could
eventually move the fault sufficiently for an earthquake to be triggered.
It is interesting that the maximum use of such bombs was near the
epicenter of today's quake.

SEISMIC HISTORY OF AREA:

At Mw 7.2, today's earthquake ranks as the largest in the 200 km
area in nearly 20 years, since December, 1983 which was the same magnitude.
The last earthquake which was larger occurred 28 years ago on July 30,
1974 (Mw 7.4).
Great earthquakes have occurred in the region in 1921 and 1909 (Mw 8.1
each). The area has experienced 23 earthquakes of Mw>=7 since modern
recording began in 1896. All but four of these have been at the
deep focus where it is thought a portion of the slab is detaching
from the downgoing Indian subcontinent under the Himalayas. This
area is one of the most seismic in the world at this depth (190-220 km).

Strong aftershocks are known to occur in this region, but tend
to be fairly uncommon, most of the strain being removed in the first
mainshock. This is quite typical of deep earthquakes where the heat
does not allow large regional strain buildup.

Table 1 lists the parameters of earthquake of Mw>=7 within 200 km of
today's NEIC epicenter.

Table 1: Seismicity within 200 km of 36.4N 70.5E (Ms>=7)

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR S LATIT E LONG DEPT MW

9 23 23 20 0 1896 37.000 71.000 160 7.5
8 30 21 50 0 1902 37.000 71.000 200 7.7
4 13 17 57 18 1907 36.500 70.500 260 7.0
10 23 20 14 6 1908 36.500 70.500 220 7.6
10 24 21 16 36 1908 36.500 70.500 220 7.0
7 7 21 39 5 1909 36.500 70.500 60 8.1
7 4 13 33 26 1911 36.000 70.500 190 7.6
4 21 0 49 49 1917 37.000 70.500 220 7.0
11 15 20 36 38 1921 36.500 70.500 215 8.1
12 6 13 55 36 1922 36.500 70.500 230 7.5
10 13 16 17 45 1924 36.000 70.500 220 7.3
2 1 17 14 26 1929 36.500 70.500 220 7.1
11 14 10 58 12 1937 36.500 70.500 240 7.2
2 28 12 54 33 1943 36.500 70.500 210 7.0
3 4 10 19 25 1949 36.000 70.500 230 7.5
7 6 23 5 33 1962 36.500 70.250 210 7.0
3 14 15 53 7 1965 36.300 70.700 219 7.8
7 30 5 12 41 1974 36.353 70.763 211 7.4
11 27 21 42 0 1976 36.500 71.100 190 7.0
12 30 23 52 40 1983 36.372 70.738 215 7.2
7 29 7 54 43 1985 36.000 70.700 102 7.0
8 9 12 42 48 1993 36.379 70.868 215 7.0
5 30 6 22 29 1998 37.106 70.110 33 7.0

FAR-FIELD FORECAST:
The following areas are expected to see increased seismicity
from March 3 through March 11, 2002. Maximum event size for
these regions is expected to increase by 0.8 magnitude units in this period.

0-5 degrees: Regional triggering- Pakistan, Hindu Kush, Afghanistan
9-10 degrees: Northern India/Nepal, So. Iran, Caspian Sea
17-19 degrees: Eastern Turkey/Iraq, Bengladesh
34-36 degrees: Istanbul, Turkey area, Afar Ethiopia
43-45 degrees: Sicily, No. Italy, Austria, Germany, Norway, Taiwan,
Central and So. Sumatera
59-61 degrees: Western Spain, Kurils, off E. Coast of Japan, Mindanao,
So. of Java
71-73 degrees: Irian Jaya, PNG, Timor, Rat Islands, Aleutians
103-107 degrees***: Central California from Pinnacles to Mammoth
Lakes, north to San Francisco, south to L.A. Virgin Islands,
Leeward Islands, Central Vanuatu Islands.
142-146 degrees: So. Peru to No. Chile, Galapagos Isl.
176-180 degrees: East Pacific Rise (Seismic area 36S 109W) or Easter Isl.
region.

***: The strongest triggering is always expected to be along the
shadow zone boundary between 103-107 degrees from the epicenter.

Lowell Whiteside
March 3, 2002

Historical following quakes after large events in the Guam region:

MAIN SEP 23 1896 37.0N 71.0E 160 7.5

AFTEREVENTS

No large earthquake were recorded in the next month

MAIN Aug 30 1902 37.0N 71.0E 200 7.7

AFTEREVENTS

Aug 31 35N 121W Ml 3.5 So. California

MAIN APR 13 1907 36.5N 70.5E 260 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Apr 15 17N 100W Ms 8.3 Guerrero, Mexico
Apr 18 14N 123E Ms 7.6 Luzon, Philippines
Apr 19 33N 80W Ml 3.9 So. Carolina
Apr 23 37N 141E M 6.0 Off Coast of Honshu
May 04 7S 153E Ms 7.7 New Britain
May 04 28N 141E Ms 7.0 Off SE. Coast Honshu

MAIN OCT 23 1908 36.5N 70.5E 220 7.6
MAIN OCT 24 1908 36.5N 70.5E 220 7.6 (aftershock)

AFTEREVENTS

Oct 26 33N 80W Ml 2.7 So. Carolina
Oct 28 36N 89W Ml 4.0 New Madrid, Missouri
Nov 03 2S 97E Ms 7.3 So. Sumatera
Nov 4 36N 117W Ml 6.5 California/Nevada
Nov 6 45N 150E M 7.6 Kuril Islands

MAIN JUL 7 1909 36.5N 70.5E 60 8.1

AFTEREVENTS

Jul 13 50N 155E Ms 6.5 Kuril Islands
Jul 08 38N 15E Swarm at Sicily/eruption
Jul 15 38N 21E M 5.7 Greece
Jul 19 40N 90W Ml 5.7 Illinois/Iowa
Jul 30 17N 100W Ms 7.8 Guerrero, Mexico

MAIN Jul 4 1911 36.0N 70.5E 190 7.6

AFTEREVENTS

Jul 05 7S 117E M 7.0 So. of Java
Jul 12 9N 126E Ms 7.7 Mindanao
Jul 19 29S 179W M 6.9 Kermadec Islands

MAIN APR 21 1917 37.0N 70.5E 220 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Apr 21 35N 120W M 4.0 Southern California
Apr 29 56N 114E M 6.8 Siberia
Apr 30 29S 177W Ms 8.6 Kermadec Islands

MAIN Nov 15 1921 36.5N 70.5E 215 8.1

AFTEREVENTS

Dec 08 36N 140E Ms 7.0 Off E. Coast of Honshu

MAIN DEC 06 1922 36.5N 70.5E 230 7.5
MAIN DEC 17 1922 36.5N 70.5E 210 6.8

AFTEREVENTS

Dec 06 38N 29E M 5.2 Istanbul, Turkey area (apparent p-wave triggered)
Dec 07 40N 20E M 5.7 Greece
Dec 07 33N 130E Ms 6.9 Shikoku, Japan
Dec 08 40N 142E Ms 6.8 Off N. Coast of Honshu/Hokkaido
Dec 18 19N 67W MS 6.3 Virgin Islands/Puerto Rico
Dec 25 43S 173E M 6.3 South Island, New Zealand
Dec 31 45N 151E Ms 7.2 Kuril Islands

MAIN OCT 13 1924 36.0S 70.5E 220 7.3

AFTEREVENTS

Oct 14 24N 46W Ms 6.5 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Oct 18 2N 80W M 6.8 Ecuador
Oct 20 35N 82W M 4.4 North Carolina
Oct 20 55N 165E Ms 6.4 Komandorsky Islands
Nov 05 35N 3E Ml 5.6 SW Spain

MAIN FEB 1 1929 36.5S 70.5E 220 7.1

AFTEREVENTS

Feb 06 49N 152E M 6.7 Northern Kuril Isl.
Feb 08 24N 122E Ml 6.0 Taiwan
Feb 10 44N 44E Ml 5.6 Caspian Sea/Caucasus
Feb 14 29N 129E M 6.0 Northern Ryukyu Isl.
Feb 16 46N 111W M 5.6 Western Montana
Feb 16 56S 153E M 6.3 Pacific-Antarctic Ridge
Feb 22 11N 42W Ml 7.2 North Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Mar 01 51N 130W Ms 6.1 Vancouver region

MAIN NOV 14 1937 36.5N 70.5E 240 7.2

AFTEREVENTS

Nov 15 35N 78E Ms 6.5 China
Nov 22 35N 135E Ms 5.7 Central Honshu )
Nov 24 44S 116W Ml 6.3 So. East Pacific Rise
Nov 26 24N 123E Ml 6.4 Taiwan
Dec 08 23N 121E Ml 7.0 Taiwan
Nov 26 36N 141E M 5.7 Off E. Coast Honshu
Nov 30 5N 90E Ml 6.5 No. Sumatera
Nov 30 5N 34E Ms 6.3 East Africa Rift

MAIN FEB 28 1943 36.5N 70.5E 210 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Mar 04 22S 179W Ms 6.0 Tonga Islands
Mar 04 35N 135E Ms 6.2 Central Honshu
Mar 05 5N 82W Ml 6.8 So of Panama
Mar 07 58N 166E Ml 6.8 Komandorsky Islands
Mar 09 41N 81W Ml 4.5 Ohio
Mar 09 60S 27W Ml 7.3 So. Sandwich Islands
Mar 12 36N 141E Ml 5.7 Off East Coast Honshu
Mar 14 36N 141E Ml 6.1 Off East Coast Honshu
Mar 14 22S 169E Ml 7.1 Loyalty Is/So. Vanuatu
Mar 14 20S 69W Ml 7.1 Peru/Chile border

MAIN JUL 06 1962 36.5S 70.3E 201 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Jul 07 51N 178E Ms 6.0 Rat Islands, Aleutians
Jul 13 9N 123E Ms 6.0 No. Mindanao
Jul 14 50N 155E Ml 6.1 Northern Kurils
Jul 15 39N 140E MS 6.4 Off East Coast N Honshu
Jul 16 62N 152E Ms 6.0 Central Alaska
Jul 17 43S 74W MB 6.7 So. Chile
Jul 17 43N 145E Ms 6.0 Kuril Islands
Jul 26 7N 82W Ms 7.5 South of Panama

MAIN MAR 14 1965 36.3N 70.7E 219 7.8

AFTEREVENTS

Mar 15 51N 174E Ml 5.2 Rat Islands, Aleutians
Mar 16 40N 143E Ml 6.6 Kurils/No. Japan
Mar 19 2S 119E M 6.0 Sumbawa Isl.
Mar 21 2S 126E MS 6.7 Celebes Islands
Mar 22 15S 173W Ms 6.5 Samoa
Mar 22 32S 72W Ms 6.0 Central Chile
Mar 28 55N 163E Ms 6.4 Komandorsky Islands

MAIN Jul 30 1974 36.3N 70.7E 211 7.4

AFTEREVENTS

Aug 01 56N 152W M 6.3 Kodiak Isl. Alaska
Aug 02 34N 82W Ml 4.9 Georgia, U.S
Aug 08 24N 123E Ms 6.0 Taiwan
Aug 11 39N 73E Ms 7.3 Tadzhik-Sinkiang border
Aug 18 39S 74W M 7.1 Southern Chile

MAIN NOV 27 1976 36.5N 71.1EE 190 7.0

Nov 30 20S 69W MS 7.3 Chile/Bolivia
Dec 07 31N 115W M 5.7 Baja California
Dec 08 45N 110W Ml 5.5 Yellowstone N.P.
Dec 12 28N 140E MW 6.4 Bonin Isl. S of Honshu

MAIN DEC 30 1983 36N 70.7E 215 7.2

AFTEREVENTS

Jan 08 3S 118E Mw 6.6 Sulawesi
Jan 14 43N 67W M 3.4 Maine

MAIN JUL 29 1985 36N 70.7E 102 7.0
MAIN AUG 02 1985 36N 70.7E 120 6.5 (Aftershock)

AFTEREVENTS

Aug 04 7N 126E Mw 6.4 Mindanao
Aug 04 36N 120W Ml 5.9 Central California
Aug 12 38N 141E Ml 6.3 Off E. Coast Honshu
Aug 15 47N 18E Ml 5.0 Hungary
Aug 16 34N 107W Ml 4.1 New Mexico
Aug 21 9S 79W Mw 6.3 PEru
Aug 23 39N 75E Mw 7.5 Xinjiang, China

MAIN AUG 09 1993 36.3N 70.9E 215 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Aug 10 45S 167E Mw 7.0 South Island, New Zealand
Aug 10 38S 177E Mw 7.4 North Island, New Zealand
Aug 11 37N 121W Ml 4.9 Central California

MAIN MAY 30 1998 37.1N 70.1E 33 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

May 30 39N 143E Mw 6.2 Off E. Coast, Honshu
Jun 01 53N 160E Mw 6.3 Kamchatka
Jun 01 34N 136E Mw 5.8 Central Honshu

Summary of far-field events following Hindu Kush mainshocks:

In general, the events of Mb>=5 tend to fall in the areas
described by the listing of far-field events expected above
from distance considerations.

The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:
(Number in paranthesis indicated number of times and event of M>=6
has followed a Hindu Kush mainshock within 2-3 weeks).

Off East Coast of Honshu, (11) to Kurils, (7)
Kamchatka/Komandorsky Islands (4)
Mindanao/Mindoro Philippines (3)
Taiwan (4)

The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

Rat Islands (3)
South Island, New Zealand (2)
Xinjiang, China (3)
No. Kermadec Isl. (2)
Shikoku/Kyushu Japan (2)
Chile/Peru Border (2)
Guerrero, Mexico (2)
Sumatera (3)
Sulawesi (2)

Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Istanbul Turkey area (1)
Sicily/Greece/Central Europe (5)
Pacific/Antarctic Ridge (3)
Southern Chile (3)
Central Alaska (2)

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3.5)

Rat Islands , Andreanoff Islands
Southern California - between 35 and 37N 116-122W
Southern states (Georgia, No and So. Carolina, New Mexico, Missouri)
Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

SUMMARY:

Earthquakes of M>=7 in Hindu Kush seldom cause a major increase
in global seismic activity. The most likely location for a large
earthquake in the next 10 days appears to be off the East Coast
of Honshu northward to Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. There are
few occasions when a large event in Hindu Kush is not followed
by a strong earthquake somewhere between Honshu and the Komandorsky
Islands. Often there is a series of such events along this arc.