Hi Cathryn,

I've been thinking about your point on the doctor releasing the information through his book on the possible location and time frame for the "big one" and I concluded first of all, the prediction cannot be a short-term one as it takes to long to write the book and publish it. Therefore, it may not be any better than the long range forecasts the USGS delivers in thirty year expectancies.

But another thought comes to mind as well. Let us suppose that this future location starts having precursors that he feels signal the time when a short-term prediction should be issued. He more than likely would not go to the Earthquake Prediction Council for approval for a public statement knowing that they would not act on his forecast. So let us think that this humanitarian decides to go public and notifies the media of his findings. The first thing that is going to happen is the government is going to discredit him in bringing forward his past prison sentence information.

In this situation, timing may be everything. If the prediction window is for three days, chances are it will make it through the media and out to the public before any counter-charges could be issued. But if he gives a ten day window, then chances are he will be discredited before the public and they will ignore his warning.

If he ends up making a false alarm, his goose is cooked for all time. If he is successful, then there will still be some backlash from his past, which may have some influence on the future. I can't see where he is going to gain any ground in prediction because he will always have his past to reckon with. Unfortunately, the issue of credibility will always surround him for the rest of his life.

I think his path in life has an obstacle so great that in the world of prediction, he may never be able to circumvent this obstacle.

Petra