QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT MAY CHANGE SHORTLY

SUMMARY

Global and regional seismicity remained relatively quiet through
the past 24 hours. As the proton storm wanes and dissipates by
tomorrow, and with the arrival of a subsequent CME from today's
X1.1 solar flare, these quiet conditions could change to active
seismicity. The largest events appear most likely to occur between
Nov. 28 - Dec. 1, 2001, if they are triggered by the geomagnetic
storms and the two X1.1 flares.

GLOBAL

The most unusual event of the day occurred as a Mb 5.0 (NEIS) earthquake
in the area of Sicily. This is a rare event as records indicate
that only two earthquakes of Mb>=5 have been reported within 50 km
of this epicenter in the past. Those occurred on Oct. 31, 1967 (Mb 5.4)
and Dec. 23, 1959 (Mb 5.5). The event falls within the 20 degrees from
sub-solar point (33E) after an X1.1 flare occurred this afternoon and
may have been affected by that flare as well as by the strong geomagnetic
storm yesterday. It is also likely a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake
as it lies at 61 degrees from that event, a distance where FFA are
expected. The far-field forecast expires on November 26.
Other FFA from Kunlun (regions were identified in the FFA forecast)
appear to have occurred today in Kamchatka (Mb>4); the Ryukyu Islands
(Ms 5.4, 34 deg.): Cyprus (3.7, 46 deg), the Timor Sea (Mb 4.8),
France/Swiss border (Ml 2.1, 2.5) border, and Gibraltar, Spain (Ml 3.3).
Moderate seismic activity also continued in the Guerrero, Mexico
area (Ml 4.2 ...) and in El Salvador (Ml 4.2) in Central America.
An Mb 5.0 in the Northern Mid-Atlantic ridge may indicate renewed
ocean ridge seismicity following the geomagnetic storm yesterday
(Nov. 23).

U.S./CANADA

Activity in the U.S. and Canada was subdued today. No earthquake
of Ml>=3 have been reported from the entire region including Alaska
and Hawaii. The largest earthquake listed today in the region occurred
in northern California near Covelo (Ml 2.9). Other events since our
last report of Ml>=2 in California were listed near Arvin (Ml 2.7);
and the Geysers, CA (Ml 2.0, 2.1, 2.2). A Ml 2.0 was also recorded
this morning near Gros Ventre, WY.
Most other areas of the U.S. and Canada were not reporting events
today as they are closed for the weekend.
Seismicity often increases in So. California about a month following
strong earthquakes in the New Britain region. The far-field aftershock
forecast of the Mw 7.0 New Britain event on October 31 had noted:

" There is a strong relationship between New Britain events and
succeeding earthquake in southern California especially in the
area of Anza to the Salton Sea. This is probably because wave
fronts from New Britain arrive approximately parallel to the
San Andreas in this region, promoting larger events. This area
should remain active for several week. A larger event in this
area often occurs 28-33 or 43-46 days after the event in New
Britain, so the danger is not yet over."

The danger period should begin on November 28 and last through
Dec. 3, 2001.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not report any earthquake parameters today. The on-line
seismogram does show several moderate event traces in the past
several hours, however, these are regional rather than local
events.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field returned to quiet conditions today after
yesterday's geomagnetic storm. The storm is expected to trigger
several earthquakes in the Mw>=6 range between November 28 and
December 1. The currently active proton storm is waning and
proton flux is expected to return to background levels tomorrow.
This could coincide with increased regional and global seismicity
rates.
A second X1.1 class solar flare occurred today with
the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

6280 + 0945 0951 0954 X1.1

This flare occurred while Alaska was anti-solar (146W) and Turkey
was sub-solar (34E). An earthquake occurred about 30 minutes
later in Kamchatka (M3.5-5.0). However, the strongest activity
within 20 degrees longitude of the sub- and anti-solar points occurred
about 10 hours later in the regin of Sicily (14E) and was Mb 5.0+.
A Ml 1.6 was recorded NW of Tehachapi, CA at 09:48 UT near the
maximum out of the flare. Tehachapi is slightly outside of the expected
anti-solar triggering area (20 degrees longitude about sub- and
anti-solar points for the next day). CME from this flare is expected
in the earth vicinity in about two days at which time a further
strong geomagnetic storm may occur.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011125events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

ATLANTIC

Tropical storm Two is the only tropical storm currently active
in the world's oceans. Two took an unexpected turn today and
is now moving directly to the west in the Central Atlantic west
of Georgia and South Carolina. It is expected to reach category
1 hurricane strength within the next two days, but is still not
likely to make landfall on the North American landmass.
Little seismicity is expected to be associated with this
storm. For tracking information see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200117.html

For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/at200117.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 26 is the twelveth day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Australia MB>=4.0 38 3.0 0.01
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 49 3.7 0.01
Global MB>=5.0 5 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Tonga MB>=4.0 -28 -2.0 0.05
Turkey MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

ASIA

O: 24Nov2001 23:24:50 5.0S 129.8E mb=4.8 GSR BANDA SEA

O: 25NOV2001 10:36:16 52.1N 159.4E Ms=3.6 GSSA OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA

O: 24NOV2001 18:25:50 11.3S 114.9E SR=5.0 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA

O: 24NOV2001 08:59:50 9.8S 116.0E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S PRAYA, INDONESIA

O: 24NOV2001 06:25:20 10.6S 120.3E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S WAINGAPU, INDONESIA

O: 23NOV2001 21:23:50 8.5S 115.0E SR=5.0 AEIC1 W TABANAN, INDONESIA

O: 25NOV2001 20:44:23 22.5N 121.0E ML=4.2 CWB Pingtung, Taiwan

O: 25NOV2001 14:32:02 23.3N 125.2E Ms=5.4 GSSC SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 25NOV2001 03:06:40 11.1N 87.0W ML=3.1 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 25NOV2001 03:20:12 11.1N 87.0W ML=3.5 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 25NOV2001 03:46:25 11.1N 87.0W MC=3.1 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 25NOV2001 03:20:15 11.5N 86.8W MC=3.3 CASC NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 25NOV2001 02:04:08 16.6N 99.7W ML=3.8 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 25NOV2001 01:51:02 16.6N 99.8W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 24NOV2001 18:34:14 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 25NOV2001 18:06:47 12.7N 86.9W MC=3.4 CASC NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 25NOV2001 18:06:16 13.0N 89.3W MC=4.2 SIS El Salvador, C.A.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 25NOV2001 0:51:09 34.4N 33.1E ML=3.7 KAN GUNEY KIBRIS, CYPRUS

O: 25NOV2001 00:51:15 34.4N 33.3E ML=3.3 ISR Mediterranean Sea.

O: 23NOV2001 08:47: 7 37.1N 21.0E ML=3.7 NOA GREECE

O: 25NOV2001 20:11:19 38.9N 26.6E ML=3.4 KAN AEGEAN SEA
O: 25NOV2001 19:09:10 38.9N 26.6E ML=3.2 KAN AEGEAN SEA
O: 25NOV2001 18:59:36 38.7N 26.4E ML=3.5 KAN AEGEAN SEA

O: 23NOV2001 10:55:10 38.5N 24.1E ML=3.5 NOA GREECE
O: 24NOV2001 00:05:44 38.8N 23.2E ML=3.2 NOA GREECE

O: 24NOV2001 00:53:24 35.2N 26.1E ML=3.8 NOA GREECE

O: 24NOV2001 16:20:20 35.2N 26.2E ML=3.9 NOA CRETE AREA, GREECE

O: 25NOV2001 02:17:38 38.7N 20.3E ML=3.8 NOA NO GREECE

O: 25NOV2001 03:01:20 43.1N 0.5W ML=2.3 STR SSW PAU, FRANCE

O: 25NOV2001 19:34:23 38.5N 13.9E Ms=4.1 GSSC SICILY, ITALY
O: 25NOV2001 19:34:19 37.9N 14.0E Mb=5.0 NEIR SICILY, ITALY
Note: This earthquake lies within the seismic watch region after
the X1.1 flare today. It also occurred 61 degrees from the great
Kunlun Mts. earthquake in an area where FFA were expected in the
far-field forecast:

"59-61 degrees: ... Sicily"

and

"Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Central Italy"

OCEANIA

O: 25NOV2001 13:03:31 45.9N 28.1W Ms=4.5 GSSC NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
O: 25NOV2001 13:03:31 45.6N 27.7W Mb=5.0 NEIA NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 25NOV2001 0:02:44 35.3N 118.7W ML=2.7 SCSN NE of Arvin, CA
O: 25NOV2001 9:48:47 35.2N 118.6W ML=1.6 SCSN NW of Tehachapi, CA

O: 25NOV2001 14:06:17 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.2 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 25NOV2001 10:24:52 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.1 NCSN NE of The Geysers, CA
O: 25NOV2001 10:26:32 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.0 NCSN NE of The Geysers, CA

O: 25NOV2001 5:56:46 40.6N 122.0W ML=1.7 NCSN ENE of Anderson, CA

O: 25NOV2001 4:52:34 39.7N 123.2W ML=2.9 NCSN SSE of Covelo, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 25NOV2001 9:22:54 48.3N 121.0W ML=1.8 PNSN NNE of Glacier Peak

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 25NOV2001 05:28:19 43.5N 110.6W ML=2.0 USBR SE of Gros Ventre, WY