Hey...I understand...

IMO, "context" may be either "human" or "geologic"...some say a 30 year record is a tiny intereval against the hundreds/K's/M's of years in between seismic events (various sizes)....the USGS seems to use a 30 year or 100 year scale in developing probabilities...

Just for grins how many quakes happened across the whole database (within range) and what is the database period? I'd be interested in these new odds....

Some debate the use of swarm (as it implies the material centering in/around a particular fault/thrust line of action...showing continuing "creep" ...whatever). When micros happen all around an area without seeming regard to any particular fault then the activity could be termed by some as "increased micro eq. activity" versus "swarm"...but I not sure about this distinction.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what the new numbers are.

Roger's comment is duly noted. 1 in 2 versus 1 in 4 ...not alot of difference this time around...maybe changing the background estimate will change those nos.

Also, are the smaller micro eqs found on the Earthquake Catalog CD you had referred to awhile back ? Are other countries smaller quakes included too ?

Also, it's unbelievable that the water consumption/use has been stable over 20 years given the huge population explosion going in the LA Basin. Let's see... 1 gal a day per person, say +1000 new people a day...that 365,000 gallons of water per year (drinking only) ...in 20 years thats 7.3 million more gallons of water being consumed / moved around (the 1000/day was a wild guess).