An earthquake occurred tonight in the Lake Baykal region of Russia.
GSC is giving the following parameters:

O: 28OCT2001 02:53:14 55.8N 111.3E MB=3.5 GSSA LAKE BAYKAL, RUSSIA, REGION

Back on 10 October, Don had forecast an event for this region
as follows:

P: 17-21OCT 56.2N 112.6E 3.0-4.0 MD Lake Baykal, Russia

This event lies approximately (event epicenter is preliminary)
80 km from Don's predicted epicenter, within the magnitude range
but 6-7 days outside the time window.

Since 1985 when the catalog for this area begins, there have
been 13 events of Ml 3-4 within 80 km of Don's predicted epicenter.
These fell within 11 10-day long windows. 584 such windows occurred,
so the probability of getting the event within a 10-day window is
11/584 = 0.019 or about one chance in 53. There have been no events
recorded in this 80 km radius since Nov. 28, 1999. Pretty good
forecast, Don, for an area that far off the beaten track.
I hope that Moosehead beer didn't throw you off too much from
your normal Corona routine.

Don's Forecast had been:

Lake Baykal, Russia Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 10, 2001 at 12:54:45:

Magnitude: 3.0-4.0Md
From: 10/17/2001 - To: 10/21/2001
Location: Lake Baykal, Russia
Lat: 56.2N - Long: 112.6E - Range: 80Km

Hi All. Just finished my raw onion and garlic sandwich with a Moosehead
chaser.

Looking for a 3.0 to 4.0Md in the Lake Baykal, Russia area (56.2N/112.6E)
on 10/18/2001. This about 500Km NE of Irkutsk, Russia. Radius on this is 80Km.
The window opens on 10/17/2001 and closes on 10/21/2001.

Take Care...Don in creepy town

By the way, EDG and Don both had forecasts out for the Yunnan/No.India/
Nepal area around this time. Don's had been for Kathmandu in Nepal or
in China. The period of this forecast was from Oct 21 - 25 with Mb 4-5.
The closest event occurred in the Bay of Bengal (Mb 4.4) on Oct 20
and in Myanmar (MB 5.0) on Oct 19, but neither was a match for the prediction.
Unless Don wants to count the Yunnan event today, this looks
like a miss.

Don's Forecast had read:

Kathmandu, Nepal Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 16, 2001 at 10:12:17:

Magnitude: 4.0-5.0
From: 10/21/2001UTC - To: 10/25/2001UTC
Location: Kathmandu, Nepal
Lat: 28.0N - Long: 87.1E - Range: 80Km

Hi All. I'm really going out on limb with this one, as I haven't had my usual
ration of raw onion and garlic sandwich with a Moosehead Beer chaser this
morning.

I'm looking for a 4.0 to 5.0 at 28.0N/87.1E. This is about 200Km NNE of
Kathmandu, Nepal. This is very close to the Nepal/China border so it could be
in Nepal, or China. It should occur on 10/23/2001. The radius for this one
will be 80Km. The window opens on 10/21/2001 and will close on 10/25/2001.