One of the problems with using the on-line NEIS catalog is it is
not good at magnitude ranges around Ml 2-3. Generally they include
only events in the U.S. of Ml >=2.8, unless there is a specific reason to
do otherwise. for events in the U.S. The complete catalog of
events within 150 km of the location cited in New York City for
Ml 2-4 (NOAA database) is attached below. In the period from 1972-2001
there are at least 115 events listed in this region (about one every 93 days).
The "increase" in activity in the late 70's and early 80's is another indication
that more events are occurring than are being recorded. This was a period
when the northeast network was well funded and put out a quarterly newletter.
This ceased in the late 80's and continued through the 90's. So there is
strong reason to believe that the "real" seismicity rate can be taken from
the period 1979-1987 for the region.
In the first 3 months of this year (data available at the moment)
there were 5 such events. I would still not rank this prediction
very high on the basis of these statistics.

Table: Earthquakes within 150 km of 40.8N 74.0W; Ml 2.0-4.0 through
March 2001.

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR N LAT W LONG DEP ML OTHER

0 0 0 0 0 1698 41.380 -73.470 0 3.7 0
0 0 0 0 0 1702 41.400 -73.500 0 3.7 0
0 0 0 0 0 1711 41.400 -73.500 0 3.7 0
8 6 0 0 0 1729 41.400 -73.500 0 3.7 0
7 29 0 0 0 1783 40.800 -74.000 10 4.0 0
8 28 0 0 0 1792 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
10 24 6 0 0 1792 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
1 11 13 0 0 1793 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
7 6 11 0 0 1793 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
3 9 19 0 0 1794 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
3 29 0 0 0 1800 39.800 -75.200 10 3.0 0
5 18 0 0 0 1804 40.750 -74.000 0 3.0 0
8 9 20 30 0 1840 41.500 -72.900 0 3.8 0
1 25 0 0 0 1841 40.750 -74.000 0 3.0 0
1 1 0 0 0 1845 41.500 -72.500 0 3.0 0
10 26 23 15 0 1845 41.200 -73.300 0 3.9 0
9 9 4 0 0 1848 41.120 -73.920 10 3.3 0
1 17 0 0 0 1855 40.800 -73.600 0 2.4 0
3 12 0 0 0 1856 41.400 -72.600 0 3.7 0
6 30 0 0 0 1857 41.500 -72.500 0 3.0 0
6 30 0 0 0 1858 41.300 -73.000 0 3.7 0
3 5 0 0 0 1861 40.700 -74.200 0 3.0 0
2 2 0 0 0 1862 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
6 19 2 0 0 1871 40.550 -73.860 10 3.0 0
7 11 0 0 0 1872 40.900 -73.800 0 3.7 0
9 25 0 0 0 1875 41.300 -73.300 0 2.4 0
9 10 0 0 0 1877 40.100 -74.800 0 3.7 0
12 24 0 0 0 1878 40.000 -73.800 0 2.4 0
10 24 0 0 0 1879 41.300 -72.900 0 2.4 0
4 21 0 0 0 1881 40.950 -73.100 0 3.0 0
8 10 19 17 0 1884 40.350 -74.070 10 2.8 0
8 11 0 0 0 1884 40.600 -74.000 0 2.8 0
8 11 17 30 0 1884 40.580 -73.820 10 2.8 0
1 4 0 0 0 1885 41.300 -73.900 0 3.0 0
1 31 0 0 0 1885 41.300 -73.800 0 3.0 0
4 28 0 0 0 1885 41.300 -72.700 0 3.0 0
9 5 0 0 0 1886 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
3 2 21 20 0 1887 40.430 -73.530 10 2.7 0
3 8 5 30 0 1893 40.780 -73.920 10 2.5 0
3 9 5 30 0 1893 40.600 -74.000 0 2.5 0
8 11 14 0 0 1894 40.350 -74.070 10 2.6 0
9 5 0 0 0 1897 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
5 8 13 30 0 1906 41.500 -72.500 0 3.7 0
2 5 8 20 0 1908 41.400 -73.200 0 3.7 0
5 1 0 0 0 1910 40.700 -73.500 0 2.4 0
11 15 0 0 0 1913 41.500 -72.500 0 3.0 0
6 8 21 15 0 1916 41.000 -73.800 0 3.7 0
3 11 0 0 0 1917 41.500 -72.500 0 3.0 0
8 11 0 0 0 1919 41.470 -72.450 0 3.0 0
10 24 1 30 0 1925 41.400 -73.300 0 3.0 0
4 12 3 30 0 1926 40.900 -73.900 10 2.0 0
5 22 0 0 0 1926 41.420 -73.930 0 2.4 0
3 30 0 0 0 1927 41.670 -72.780 0 3.7 0
6 1 12 20 0 1927 40.360 -74.010 10 2.9 0
6 1 12 23 0 1927 40.300 -74.000 0 2.9 0
7 1 2 45 0 1931 41.600 -73.400 0 3.6 0
6 26 14 10 0 1933 41.000 -73.800 0 3.0 0
7 19 3 51 0 1937 40.700 -73.700 0 3.1 0
9 30 22 8 22 1937 40.830 -74.250 0 3.0 0
10 11 22 0 0 1937 41.200 -73.800 10 3.0 0
10 12 1 0 0 1937 41.200 -73.800 10 2.0 0
10 12 3 0 0 1937 41.200 -73.800 0 2.4 0
5 16 19 25 0 1938 40.800 -74.300 0 2.7 0
6 14 4 2 0 1938 41.370 -73.420 0 2.4 0
7 29 7 44 7 1938 41.000 -73.700 0 3.6 0
8 2 9 2 0 1938 41.100 -73.700 0 3.0 0
8 2 9 2 30 1938 41.080 -73.700 0 3.4 0
8 23 3 36 0 1938 40.100 -74.340 13 3.8 0
8 23 3 36 32 1938 40.100 -74.340 14 3.9 0
8 23 5 4 0 1938 40.050 -74.360 20 4.0 0
8 23 5 4 53 1938 40.050 -74.360 21 4.0 0
8 23 5 18 23 1938 41.200 -73.700 0 3.0 0
8 23 7 3 0 1938 40.230 -74.570 3 3.7 0
8 23 7 3 28 1938 40.230 -74.570 3 3.7 0
8 23 7 11 46 1938 41.200 -73.700 0 3.0 0
8 23 11 11 6 1938 40.200 -74.200 0 3.7 0
8 27 22 36 25 1938 40.200 -74.200 0 3.0 0
10 21 7 18 0 1938 41.200 -73.700 0 2.9 0
10 21 7 18 55 1938 41.170 -73.670 0 2.3 0
12 6 19 38 0 1938 40.800 -74.300 0 3.0 0
9 13 1 22 4 1939 40.800 -74.000 0 2.3 0
9 21 20 30 1 1939 41.420 -74.080 0 2.6 0
3 2 4 15 0 1940 41.480 -72.480 0 3.1 0
3 2 4 15 36 1940 41.500 -72.500 0 3.0 0
3 13 1 29 0 1940 41.480 -72.480 0 2.6 0
4 29 14 5 0 1941 40.500 -72.500 0 2.5 0
4 29 14 5 35 1941 40.500 -72.500 0 2.5 0
7 28 19 24 10 1941 41.130 -73.750 0 3.0 0
4 23 20 40 1 1942 41.300 -72.830 0 2.9 0
10 24 17 27 4 1942 40.970 -75.250 0 3.4 0
7 24 5 18 36 1943 40.000 -72.700 0 2.5 0
7 24 5 19 0 1943 40.000 -72.700 0 3.5 0
12 14 3 14 0 1944 41.600 -72.800 0 3.4 0
12 14 3 15 0 1944 41.600 -72.800 0 3.6 0
4 1 13 25 0 1947 41.000 -74.300 0 2.7 0
4 1 13 25 54 1947 41.000 -74.280 0 3.0 0
6 4 9 0 0 1948 41.280 -72.450 0 2.3 0
3 29 14 43 2 1950 41.050 -73.600 0 3.6 0
1 26 3 27 0 1951 41.500 -72.500 0 3.3 0
9 3 21 26 0 1951 41.360 -73.860 17 3.5 0
9 3 21 26 25 1951 41.360 -73.860 18 3.8 0
11 23 6 45 36 1951 40.600 -75.500 0 3.6 0
12 8 4 37 0 1951 41.700 -73.900 0 2.7 0
3 27 8 50 0 1953 41.100 -73.500 0 2.9 0
8 17 4 22 0 1953 41.000 -74.000 0 3.2 0
8 17 4 22 50 1953 41.000 -74.000 0 3.7 0
3 31 21 25 0 1954 40.250 -74.000 0 3.6 0
3 23 19 2 0 1957 40.600 -74.800 0 2.9 0
4 13 21 20 0 1959 41.900 -73.300 0 3.4 0
4 13 21 20 19 1959 41.920 -73.270 0 3.4 0
1 22 20 53 0 1960 41.500 -75.500 0 3.4 0
1 22 20 53 22 1960 41.500 -75.500 0 3.4 0
12 27 17 6 0 1961 40.500 -74.800 0 2.7 0
12 20 4 2 0 1962 41.000 -74.300 10 2.0 0
6 16 0 0 0 1964 40.900 -74.300 0 4.2 0
11 22 22 10 0 1967 41.200 -73.800 0 3.2 0
11 3 8 33 0 1968 41.400 -72.500 0 3.3 0
12 10 9 12 45 1968 39.700 -74.600 23 2.6 8
2 15 23 53 14 1972 41.300 -73.600 0 2.6 0
4 8 22 8 21 1974 41.240 -74.020 10 2.1 0
6 7 19 45 37 1974 41.571 -73.940 2 3.3 12
2 20 8 6 0 1975 40.300 -73.200 0 2.9 0
4 29 9 51 0 1975 41.600 -73.900 10 2.3 0
6 15 8 8 0 1975 41.600 -73.900 0 2.0 0
7 19 20 59 32 1975 41.430 -73.788 3 2.3 11
8 22 17 29 22 1975 41.110 -73.940 10 2.3 0
10 24 7 8 46 1975 41.620 -73.980 5 2.0 0
10 24 7 43 12 1975 41.593 -73.933 3 2.2 5
3 6 4 14 0 1976 41.200 -73.800 6 2.3 0
3 11 21 7 21 1976 40.998 -74.371 5 2.4 11
3 12 10 28 56 1976 40.940 -74.360 10 2.2 0
4 13 15 39 14 1976 40.840 -74.050 1 3.1 0
4 24 10 22 22 1976 41.460 -72.490 0 2.2 14
5 11 13 18 14 1976 40.480 -73.800 1 2.8 0
8 20 22 8 14 1976 41.110 -73.750 6 2.5 0
1 21 20 50 45 1977 39.970 -74.320 0 2.7 0
3 10 16 22 0 1977 41.200 -74.200 6 2.2 0
7 2 11 13 21 1977 40.700 -74.930 10 2.3 0
9 2 5 53 57 1977 41.310 -73.920 2 2.5 0
9 3 0 8 52 1977 41.310 -73.920 10 3.0 0
10 14 0 9 54 1977 41.560 -73.950 10 2.2 0
12 4 23 50 56 1977 40.810 -74.760 10 2.1 0
12 9 17 33 7 1977 41.560 -73.880 5 2.3 0
12 23 4 55 11 1977 40.810 -74.760 10 2.3 0
3 5 7 53 26 1978 41.352 -74.146 5 2.1 5
4 3 23 57 58 1978 40.530 -74.080 10 2.0 0
6 30 20 13 44 1978 41.075 -74.202 5 2.9 18
6 30 22 39 50 1978 41.076 -74.201 6 2.2 8
1 17 12 56 19 1979 40.330 -73.720 24 2.0 0
1 30 16 30 52 1979 40.321 -74.264 5 3.5 28
2 11 7 21 21 1979 41.190 -73.150 11 2.0 0
2 23 10 23 57 1979 40.803 -74.809 13 2.9 6
3 10 4 49 40 1979 40.721 -74.504 3 3.1 13
6 20 19 20 18 1979 41.350 -74.380 0 3.0 0
9 4 7 38 56 1979 41.580 -73.540 2 2.8 0
12 1 16 14 7 1979 41.350 -74.360 0 2.0 0
12 30 14 15 12 1979 41.140 -73.690 5 2.5 2
12 30 14 19 24 1979 41.160 -73.690 3 2.2 0
1 17 10 12 25 1980 41.260 -73.910 5 2.4 0
1 17 10 12 45 1980 41.260 -73.910 10 2.4 0
1 17 10 13 16 1980 41.309 -73.928 3 2.9 10
3 2 11 54 48 1980 40.210 -75.080 0 2.8 0
3 5 17 6 19 1980 40.170 -75.070 8 2.7 0
3 5 17 6 55 1980 40.188 -75.157 5 3.5 9
3 5 17 20 32 1980 40.180 -75.070 5 3.1 0
3 11 6 0 26 1980 40.155 -75.103 5 3.7 11
3 11 16 16 6 1980 40.250 -74.990 1 2.8 0
3 25 18 54 36 1980 40.980 -75.010 5 2.8 0
4 5 11 49 34 1980 39.830 -74.050 6 2.9 0
4 25 0 23 35 1980 41.350 -74.370 0 2.4 0
5 2 15 23 24 1980 40.160 -74.990 5 2.8 0
5 2 19 2 24 1980 40.260 -75.030 0 3.0 0
5 7 4 32 49 1980 41.020 -73.870 0 2.6 0
5 12 1 38 56 1980 41.280 -74.140 4 2.4 0
5 20 21 33 23 1980 41.350 -74.370 2 2.6 0
6 17 14 14 0 1982 41.500 -72.500 0 2.7 0
8 2 17 20 60 1980 40.430 -74.150 8 3.1 0
8 30 9 19 9 1980 39.840 -74.860 2 3.0 0
9 4 4 30 56 1980 41.110 -73.780 13 3.2 0
9 27 0 48 31 1980 41.540 -73.690 6 2.5 0
10 24 17 27 38 1980 41.320 -72.870 7 3.1 0
10 25 0 41 28 1980 41.330 -72.880 6 3.0 0
12 12 23 4 53 1980 41.310 -73.910 14 2.3 0
3 19 8 51 35 1981 40.940 -74.360 9 2.0 0
5 18 7 22 13 1981 41.100 -74.200 8 2.2 0
10 12 14 58 59 1981 41.536 -73.101 9 2.0 0
3 19 8 51 35 1981 40.940 -74.360 9 2.0 0
5 18 7 22 13 1981 41.100 -74.200 8 2.2 0
10 12 14 58 59 1981 41.536 -73.101 9 2.0 0
10 21 16 49 7 1981 41.135 -72.563 6 3.8 0
3 29 9 37 29 1982 40.020 -73.174 12 2.2 0
4 12 22 14 31 1982 40.024 -74.813 5 2.8 9
6 17 8 0 38 1982 41.507 -72.471 7 2.2 0
6 17 8 2 38 1982 41.510 -72.470 8 2.2 0
6 17 15 29 24 1982 41.457 -72.457 13 2.1 0
7 29 4 37 32 1982 39.943 -74.110 9 2.4 0
8 18 4 30 39 1982 41.126 -74.155 5 2.3 0
1 21 21 21 26 1983 40.955 -73.682 0 2.2 0
2 19 5 45 45 1983 40.649 -74.769 6 2.7 12
2 21 21 13 31 1983 39.787 -73.205 20 2.8 0
2 26 19 59 35 1983 41.554 -73.658 7 3.0 31
4 25 10 6 37 1983 40.286 -73.669 7 2.0 0
3 12 6 34 40 1984 40.272 -73.952 10 2.0 0
3 31 22 28 50 1984 40.487 -73.835 8 2.1 0
5 10 10 14 52 1984 40.322 -75.298 7 2.2 0
5 13 3 18 28 1984 40.919 -74.540 5 2.1 0
8 12 21 3 27 1984 40.919 -74.726 3 2.4 0
8 12 21 12 59 1984 40.912 -74.721 4 2.1 0
10 25 7 18 54 1984 40.888 -74.697 7 2.0 0
1 26 19 6 47 1985 40.993 -73.828 5 2.2 2
3 16 2 54 36 1985 42.147 -73.795 10 2.2 0
10 19 10 5 46 1985 40.990 -73.820 5 2.0 5
10 19 10 7 44 1985 41.206 -73.981 18 4.1 31
10 21 10 37 15 1985 40.990 -73.840 5 3.3 20
12 25 10 18 53 1985 40.813 -73.000 6 2.3 0
1 5 3 35 56 1986 40.996 -73.833 6 2.5 0
4 22 7 28 24 1986 40.980 -73.834 6 2.7 17
9 15 22 34 51 1986 40.129 -74.518 3 2.3 0
11 23 21 29 39 1986 40.956 -74.820 7 2.8 9
2 22 19 20 16 1987 41.311 -73.924 0 2.0 0
9 11 14 46 33 1987 41.465 -72.500 5 2.4 7
12 6 8 36 7 1987 40.069 -74.733 2 2.1 0
8 2 6 38 52 1988 41.344 -72.786 10 2.0 0
11 1 8 19 0 1988 40.440 -74.070 3 2.1 0
1 22 8 27 0 1989 40.880 -73.940 5 2.0 0
2 21 19 46 25 1989 41.553 -73.429 9 2.3 0
4 27 6 40 42 1989 41.268 -72.902 13 2.7 0

1 25 6 44 58 1990 41.478 -72.916 1 2.8 0
4 12 11 12 12 1991 41.151 -73.653 9 2.7 6
9 29 12 21 35 1991 39.848 -75.031 5 2.2 4
10 28 20 58 26 1991 41.070 -73.578 10 3.0 2
1 9 8 50 45 1992 40.363 -74.341 8 3.1 12
1 15 17 16 28 1992 41.239 -74.160 7 2.5 2
2 26 21 13 34 1993 39.876 -74.942 5 2.5 8
1 27 2 37 7 1995 40.960 -74.500 3 2.3 0
2 19 11 3 48 1995 41.270 -74.090 4 2.3 0
10 24 6 44 18 1996 39.870 -74.350 10 2.0 0
5 31 1 16 31 1999 40.060 -74.710 10 2.3 0
1 22 11 9 27 2000 40.440 -73.365 33 3.4 4
8 22 5 45 14 2000 41.420 -73.630 7 2.6 7
1 17 12 34 23 2001 40.777 -73.954 7 2.5 11
2 3 17 50 41 2001 41.330 -72.730 5 2.9 0
3 2 20 19 15 2001 40.890 -74.370 0 2.1 0
3 15 17 9 45 2001 41.210 -73.960 0 2.5 0
3 23 17 5 0 2001 41.650 -73.920 0 3.4 0