Re: 1 million random predictions
Posted by Skywise on November 03, 2013 at 01:17:55:

Amit, sorry I didn't label the graph. I meant to describe what it was showing and forgot.

X access is number of successful predictions, ranging from 0 to 212, out of the 212 random predictions.

Y access is how many runs resulted in X number of hits. The value is x1000.

The result is the classic bell curve, a "normal distribution" or "Gaussian" to use proper statistics parlance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

As you can see, the curve peaks at 65. This means that if you get 65 predictions out of 212 right, you are doing equal to chance. To do better than chance, you need to get more than 65 right. So far the testing that Roger and I have done put you at 63.

I hope this helps you understand.

Brian


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: 1 million random predictions - Roger Hunter  12:36:29 - 11/3/2013  (101276)  (1)
        ● Re: 1 million random predictions - Skywise  15:26:55 - 11/3/2013  (101283)  (1)
           ● Re: 1 million random predictions - Roger Hunter  17:38:50 - 11/3/2013  (101288)  (1)
              ● Re: 1 million random predictions - Skywise  17:58:41 - 11/3/2013  (101291)  (0)
     ● Re: 1 million random predictions - EQF  04:39:24 - 11/3/2013  (101273)  (1)
        ● Re: 1 million random predictions - Roger Hunter  21:44:26 - 11/3/2013  (101296)  (1)
           ● Re: 1 million random predictions - EQF  00:42:00 - 11/5/2013  (101312)  (1)
              ● Re: 1 million random predictions - Roger Hunter  09:28:02 - 11/5/2013  (101319)  (1)
                 ● Re: 1 million random predictions - EQF  00:34:29 - 11/7/2013  (101333)  (0)