Re: Thoughts On the Anniversary Of Loma Prieta 10/17/89
Posted by Todd on October 16, 2001 at 23:55:26:

Hi Petra,

Thanks for the reminder note. This has been such a crazy week for me, I totally forgot. Wow, time goes by fast. I was living in the east bay at the time and to this day I remember exactly how the earth moved during that quake. What I still remember most is even after the severe shaking was over (the 15 second part) the house trembeled, ever so slightly for at least 2-4 minutes more. I remember ducking under a desk after the main shock was done but watching the sliding glass doors in the room I was in as well as another door across the hall continue to slightly shake in their hinges and the objects on the walls vibrate too. All in unison. I knew we had just had a dousy of a quake. I remember talking to many people after the quake about this secondary light shaking and everyone experienced. So, in a sense, the quake really did last 5 minutes, but only 15 seconds of it was severe and caused damage. I learned later on that indeed the mighty San Andreas Fault continued to move for many minutes continuously past the initial 15 sec. violent lurch and that when a quake is that big the, shock waves are strike the bottom of the crust and reverberate through the earth for many minutes, like a bell after being rung. I guess the reason why I'm rambling about this stupid detail is because noone ever talks about that side of a major quake, the fact that there are 2 sides to the big ones, the major shaking and then the little continuous tremble that will follow for many minutes after. I learned that indeed this is normal and many experienced this after the Northridge quake of 94 as well. It is important to note that when the big one hits, that to be aware during it that after the major shaking dies down, there will be some small rolling for at least 2-5 minutes and to not think you are going to bolt from your hiding place as soon as you detect the initial major shake dying down, because Folks-it won't be over yet!

On another note, I forgot all about that notice about the Hayward Fault Petra brought up. Yes, yes, indeed there was a lot of conern about that fault. I remember in the spring of 90 (about 6 months after Loma Prieta) and Danville erupted into a swarm of unprecedented 4s, 3s, 2s and tones of 1s in a 2 week window. Boy, were scientists on edge that either the northern Calaveras or Hayward was set to go. I remember KRON and KPIX doing special Prime Time specials on the Hayward Fault, what the implications of its presence were and how we should all be prepared that it could go any minute.

Looking back now, things are different. Whether or not the Bay Area is more prepared now than it wsa then...who knows. The Bay Area has experienced tones of growth since, and I fear that Loma Prieta may be a distant memory for some. On the seismic front, the Bay Area has entered into a very seismic sleeping period since 89. Aside from the occasional 5 in Hollistor, or 4 near ALum Rock, the 90s were nothing compared to the 80s with Loma Prieta, Morgan Hill, Livermore and the multiple 5s all around the bay area. Is this quiet time coming to an end w/ Bodega Bay and Yountville? Possibly. It is also interesting to note that now the Hayward Fault isn't that feared anymore like it was after 89. Who knows.

IMO, if you look at that period in the 1800s when things were very active, I view Loma Prieta as the very, VERY begining of this period the Bay Area was entering. I think at the time USGS was worried we were entering the climax of this period again-hence the warnings of the Hayward Fault in 5 years. I think overall the quiet may continue for another couple of years. I feel LA may be entering into a more volitile time that SF. BUT, there definetly is a pattern developing in N. Cal, it is just a debate as to how much and when. I say, we are seeing a teaser for now, but have a while to wait before we see magnitude 5, 6 and 7s occuring several times a decade for the next 3-4 decades.

Todd


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Thoughts On the Anniversary Of Loma Prieta 10/17/89 - Petra Challus  07:34:48 - 10/17/2001  (10091)  (0)
     ● Re: Thoughts On the Anniversary Of Loma Prieta 10/17/89 - Don In Hollister  01:00:26 - 10/17/2001  (10088)  (0)