Chris;

That's not how it works.

I do not count quakes at all. I count correct predictions. Multiple hits only matter if they are predicted.

In your example, 10 days, 100 quakes, all on the predicted days I would say 10 hits. The odds on a mag 6 quake are 29% on any given day so you get credit for 10 hits.

What are the odds on getting 10 hits and no misses? Pretty small so your significance level would be high.

Does this help or do you need actual numbers?

Roger