[Roger Hunter]

(03-26-2014, 04:52 AM)Amit Wrote: But why the one winning lottery should be me? Why not anybody else?

Amit;

Because you're the one making predictions.

Probability is crucial to these evaluations and is the source of much confusion. Since your success is so unlikely I took another look, with the following results.

[PRE]

You predicted this:

1) 28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 (Noon 27 Feb - noon 2 Mar)
2) 6/7th March .................6.4 (Noon 5 Mar - noon 8 Mar)
3) 12th March ..................6.4
4) 16th March ..................6.5
5) 24th March...................6.5
6) 28th March...................6.3

places not predicted

Magnitude window + or -0.3

Date window + or - one day
------------------------------------
Here are the mag 6+ quakes so far:

2014-02-26 21:13:40 6.1
2014-02-27 <-------------|
2014-02-28 --------------|
2014-03-01 --------------| (1) Hit
2014-03-02 09:37:54 6.2<-|
2014-03-02 20:11:22 6.5
2014-03-03
2014-03-04
2014-03-05 09:56:58 6.3<--|
2014-03-06 ---------------|
2014-03-07----------------| (2) Hit
2014-03-08 ---------------|
2014-03-09
2014-03-10 05:18:13 6.8
2014-03-11 02:44:05 6.4<--|
2014-03-11 22:03:11 6.1---| (3) Hit
2014-03-12 <--------------|
2014-03-13 17:06:50 6.3
2014-03-14
2014-03-15 08:59:21 6.1<--|
2014-03-15 23:51:30 6.3---| (4) Hit
2014-03-16 21:16:30 6.7<--|
2014-03-17 05:11:34 6.2
2014-03-18
2014-03-19
2014-03-20
2014-03-21 13:41:07 6.5
2014-03-22 12:59:58 6.2
2014-03-23 18:20:03 6.0<--|
2014-03-24 ---------------| (5) Hit
2014-03-25 <--------------|
2014-03-26 03:29:36 6.5
2014-03-27<---------------|
2014-03-28----------------| Miss
2014-03-29<---------------|

16 quakes, 32 days, 6 predictions, 5 hits
[/PRE]

Now the odds are about 50% and 5 out of 6 hits with 50% chance of success is about 10%. Even 5 out of 5 has a 3% chance, so while you're good, it's not good enough to pass.

Roger