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+--- Thread: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction (/showthread.php?tid=65)
Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 02-24-2014
Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-02-2014
(02-24-2014, 08:29 AM)Amit Wrote: Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
pl see my first prediction and actual quake.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/144823d51721675f
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-14-2014
(03-02-2014, 05:20 PM)Amit Wrote:(02-24-2014, 08:29 AM)Amit Wrote: Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
pl see my first prediction and actual quake.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/144823d51721675f
Amit
Hi
pl check the 6+ quakes between 12th and 13th as predicted.watch date and magnitude window accuracy
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-14-2014
(03-02-2014, 05:20 PM)Amit Wrote:(02-24-2014, 08:29 AM)Amit Wrote: Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
pl see my first prediction and actual quake.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/144823d51721675f
Amit
Hi
pl check the 6+ quakes between 12th and 13th as predicted.watch date and magnitude window accuracy
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-16-2014
(02-24-2014, 08:29 AM)Amit Wrote: Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
hi
6.3 quake at peru on 16th March
one more dste hit 6+ quake prediction.
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-17-2014
(02-24-2014, 08:29 AM)Amit Wrote: Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
hi
One more date hit prediction.7 quake at chile on 16th March.
How many date hits are required to prove.
Wake up USGS
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Roger Hunter - 03-17-2014
Amit;
Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss
2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit
3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit
4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit
5)24th March...................6.5 Not time
6)28th March...................6.3 Not time
Based on these quakes from NEIC
2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7
So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.
Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.
Roger
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-17-2014
(03-17-2014, 04:12 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Amit;
Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss
2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit
3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit
4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit
5)24th March...................6.5 Not time
6)28th March...................6.3 Not time
Based on these quakes from NEIC
2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7
So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.
Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.
Roger
Roger
why the first one can not be considered
The prediction was 28th/1st march ie window is up to 2nd Noon UTC
Thus it is 4 out of 4 hits!!
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Roger Hunter - 03-17-2014
(03-17-2014, 08:10 AM)Amit Wrote: Based on these quakes from NEIC
2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2 <---
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7
Roger
why the first one can not be considered
The prediction was 28th/1st march ie window is up to 2nd Noon UTC
Thus it is 4 out of 4 hits!!
Amit
Amit;
My mistake, you have 4/4 correct.
Those double date predictions always confuse me.
It doesn't change anything though. You've found a cherry in your overall record, that's all.
Roger
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Canie - 03-17-2014
Back to reality - knowing a 6.5 quake will occur on a day somewhere in the world at some time is really worthless.. we already know quake of this size can occur anytime in the 'at risk' areas.
Canie
(03-17-2014, 04:12 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Amit;
Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss
2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit
3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit
4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit
5)24th March...................6.5 Not time
6)28th March...................6.3 Not time
So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.
Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.
Roger