[Amit]

(03-17-2014, 04:12 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Amit;

Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)

1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss

2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit

3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit

4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit

5)24th March...................6.5 Not time

6)28th March...................6.3 Not time



Based on these quakes from NEIC

2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7

So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.

Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.

Roger

Roger
why the first one can not be considered
The prediction was 28th/1st march ie window is up to 2nd Noon UTC
Thus it is 4 out of 4 hits!!
Amit