Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction
#7
Amit;

Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)

1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss

2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit

3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit

4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit

5)24th March...................6.5 Not time

6)28th March...................6.3 Not time

Based on these quakes from NEIC

2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7

So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.

Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.

Roger




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Messages In This Thread
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - by Roger Hunter - 03-17-2014, 04:12 AM
Odds cannot be close to correct - by Island Chris - 03-27-2014, 10:27 PM

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