03-17-2014, 04:12 AM
Amit;
Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss
2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit
3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit
4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit
5)24th March...................6.5 Not time
6)28th March...................6.3 Not time
Based on these quakes from NEIC
2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7
So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.
Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.
Roger
Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss
2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit
3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit
4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit
5)24th March...................6.5 Not time
6)28th March...................6.3 Not time
Based on these quakes from NEIC
2014-02-18T09:27:13.490Z, 14.6511, -58.9478, 16.86,6.5
2014-02-26T21:13:40.600Z, 53.6792,-171.8369,264.66,6.1
2014-03-02T09:37:54.830Z, 12.5555, -87.6902, 60.00,6.2
2014-03-02T20:11:22.640Z, 27.4052, 127.3354,111.18,6.5
2014-03-05T09:56:58.630Z,-14.7347, 169.8222,636.76,6.3 <----
2014-03-10T05:18:13.400Z, 40.8287,-125.1338, 16.60,6.8
2014-03-11T02:44:05.990Z,-60.8391, -19.9569, 10.00,6.4 <----
2014-03-11T22:03:11.450Z, -3.1128, 148.4774, 10.00,6.1
2014-03-13T17:06:51.180Z, 33.6827, 131.7366, 82.92,6.3
2014-03-15T23:51:30.610Z, -5.5660, -80.8790, 9.80,6.3 <----
2014-03-15T08:59:21.790Z,-14.0935, -76.2968, 20.00,6.1
2014-03-16T21:16:30.770Z,-19.9246, -70.6278, 20.00,6.7
So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.
Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.
Roger