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03-27-2014, 10:27 PM
Roger, your odds cannot be correct.
see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/e...qstats.php
There are 134 earthquakes M6-6.9 per year, or 150 quakes M6 or higher per year. So, almost one every other day. So, maybe 45% change of a quake any one day, and much higher chance of a quake within any 3 day period. So your odds of 0.000012 for 5 out of 6 must be off (by orders of magnitude?).
OK, presumably many quakes are aftershocks, so if that is taken into account, odds are lower than if they were all randomly distributed. But your odds still do not seem possible by orders of magnitude.
Also, if you were correct, comparing this to lottery does not make logical sense: Amit is correct that he would be a single lottery player.
So, try again.
Chris
see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/e...qstats.php
There are 134 earthquakes M6-6.9 per year, or 150 quakes M6 or higher per year. So, almost one every other day. So, maybe 45% change of a quake any one day, and much higher chance of a quake within any 3 day period. So your odds of 0.000012 for 5 out of 6 must be off (by orders of magnitude?).
OK, presumably many quakes are aftershocks, so if that is taken into account, odds are lower than if they were all randomly distributed. But your odds still do not seem possible by orders of magnitude.
Also, if you were correct, comparing this to lottery does not make logical sense: Amit is correct that he would be a single lottery player.
So, try again.
Chris