[Duffy]

Prediction (J40)

Longitude .......... 177' 20' E

Latitude ............. 40' 16' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5

Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ

Start Date ........... 00:01 ut  6th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  6th Dec

Duffy  (22:16 ut  5th Nov)

[Duffy]

(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)

Longitude .......... 177' 20' E

Latitude ............. 40' 16' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5

Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ

Start Date ........... 00:01 ut  6th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  6th Dec

Duffy  (22:16 ut  5th Nov)

................................................................................................................................................................................

Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !

Duffy  (22:57 ut  10th Nov)

[Duffy]

(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)

Longitude .......... 177' 20' E

Latitude ............. 40' 16' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5

Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ

Start Date ........... 00:01 ut  6th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  6th Dec

Duffy  (22:16 ut  5th Nov)

................................................................................................................................................................................

Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !

Duffy  (22:57 ut  10th Nov)

............................................................................................................................................................................


Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ  90% !

Duffy  (01:05 ut  13th Nov)

[Duffy]

(11-13-2016, 01:05 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)

Longitude .......... 177' 20' E

Latitude ............. 40' 16' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5

Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ

Start Date ........... 00:01 ut  6th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  6th Dec

Duffy  (22:16 ut  5th Nov)

................................................................................................................................................................................

Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !

Duffy  (22:57 ut  10th Nov)

............................................................................................................................................................................


Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ  90% !

Duffy  (01:05 ut  13th Nov)

.......................................................................................................................................................................

Combined data still indicating signals at approx 174' E by 35' S remain strong to heavy (North Island, NZ)
 
An observation, "not" prediction

Duffy  ( 00:22 ut 16th Nov)

[Duffy]

(11-16-2016, 12:22 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-13-2016, 01:05 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)

Longitude .......... 177' 20' E

Latitude ............. 40' 16' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5

Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ

Start Date ........... 00:01 ut  6th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  6th Dec

Duffy  (22:16 ut  5th Nov)

................................................................................................................................................................................

Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !

Duffy  (22:57 ut  10th Nov)

............................................................................................................................................................................


Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ  90% !

Duffy  (01:05 ut  13th Nov)

.......................................................................................................................................................................

Combined data still indicating signals at approx 174' E by 35' S remain strong to heavy (North Island, NZ)
 
An observation, "not" prediction

Duffy  ( 00:22 ut 16th Nov)

..................................................................................................................................................................

M 5.6 North Island of New Zealand 00:19 ut  22nd Nov at bearing 177' 0' E by 40' 35' S

The past few weeks, I have been trying to predict in a manner more befitting to the profession of seismology with all the courtesy that entails ... But, What the hell ... I'll take this one because I think I've earned it !!

Duffy  

[Roger Hunter]

(11-22-2016, 01:48 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-16-2016, 12:22 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-13-2016, 01:05 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)

Longitude .......... 177' 20' E

Latitude ............. 40' 16' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5

Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ

Start Date ........... 00:01 ut  6th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  6th Dec

Duffy  (22:16 ut  5th Nov)

................................................................................................................................................................................

Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !

Duffy  (22:57 ut  10th Nov)

............................................................................................................................................................................


Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ  90% !

Duffy  (01:05 ut  13th Nov)

.......................................................................................................................................................................

Combined data still indicating signals at approx 174' E by 35' S remain strong to heavy (North Island, NZ)
 
An observation, "not" prediction

Duffy  ( 00:22 ut 16th Nov)

..................................................................................................................................................................

M 5.6 North Island of New Zealand 00:19 ut  22nd Nov at bearing 177' 0' E by 40' 35' S

The past few weeks, I have been trying to predict in a manner more befitting to the profession of seismology with all the courtesy that entails ... But, What the hell ... I'll take this one because I think I've earned it !!

Duffy  

I agree but you need to understand that month long predictions for moderate quakes in seismic regions don't count for much.

Roger

[Duffy]

I was partly being satirical with my comment, it doesn't count for much here because you are pitting long established geological and seismological forecasts against radio. I can appreciate this, why put a cat among the pigeons if the pigeons are happy as they are.   I don't debate which region I should select, or level of magnitude I should chose, I just get a spike on my screen. And if I can match the same spike in data from days or weeks past, then I go where the spike tells me !

Scientist here tell me an honest scientific approach is what counts most, so I'm not blind to the fact that the resent 5.9 off North Island  177' E .. is a probable response on the same fault line to activity on 173' E , therefore an aftershock (or from my point of view, a precursor).  However, the professor I am dealing with here is only interested in high numbers on a spreadsheet before he'll place one foot into my observatory. If claiming this gives me another number, then that's what I must do ... it counts for me !

Duffy