+- Earthwaves Earth Sciences Forum (http://www.earthwaves.org/forum)
+-- Forum: Earthwaves (http://www.earthwaves.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?fid=16)
+--- Forum: Earthquake Predictions (http://www.earthwaves.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?fid=8)
+--- Thread: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 (/showthread.php?tid=556)
Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Duffy - 11-05-2016
Prediction (J40)
Longitude .......... 177' 20' E
Latitude ............. 40' 16' S
Error .................. +/- 2'
Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5
Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ
Start Date ........... 00:01 ut 6th Nov
Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut 6th Dec
Duffy (22:16 ut 5th Nov)
RE: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Duffy - 11-10-2016
(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)
Longitude .......... 177' 20' E
Latitude ............. 40' 16' S
Error .................. +/- 2'
Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5
Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ
Start Date ........... 00:01 ut 6th Nov
Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut 6th Dec
Duffy (22:16 ut 5th Nov)
................................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !
Duffy (22:57 ut 10th Nov)
RE: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Duffy - 11-13-2016
(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)
Longitude .......... 177' 20' E
Latitude ............. 40' 16' S
Error .................. +/- 2'
Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5
Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ
Start Date ........... 00:01 ut 6th Nov
Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut 6th Dec
Duffy (22:16 ut 5th Nov)
................................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !
Duffy (22:57 ut 10th Nov)
............................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ 90% !
Duffy (01:05 ut 13th Nov)
RE: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Duffy - 11-16-2016
(11-13-2016, 01:05 AM)Duffy Wrote:(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)
Longitude .......... 177' 20' E
Latitude ............. 40' 16' S
Error .................. +/- 2'
Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5
Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ
Start Date ........... 00:01 ut 6th Nov
Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut 6th Dec
Duffy (22:16 ut 5th Nov)
................................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !
Duffy (22:57 ut 10th Nov)
............................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ 90% !
Duffy (01:05 ut 13th Nov)
.......................................................................................................................................................................
Combined data still indicating signals at approx 174' E by 35' S remain strong to heavy (North Island, NZ)
An observation, "not" prediction
Duffy ( 00:22 ut 16th Nov)
RE: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Duffy - 11-22-2016
(11-16-2016, 12:22 AM)Duffy Wrote:(11-13-2016, 01:05 AM)Duffy Wrote:(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)
Longitude .......... 177' 20' E
Latitude ............. 40' 16' S
Error .................. +/- 2'
Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5
Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ
Start Date ........... 00:01 ut 6th Nov
Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut 6th Dec
Duffy (22:16 ut 5th Nov)
................................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !
Duffy (22:57 ut 10th Nov)
............................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ 90% !
Duffy (01:05 ut 13th Nov)
.......................................................................................................................................................................
Combined data still indicating signals at approx 174' E by 35' S remain strong to heavy (North Island, NZ)
An observation, "not" prediction
Duffy ( 00:22 ut 16th Nov)
..................................................................................................................................................................
M 5.6 North Island of New Zealand 00:19 ut 22nd Nov at bearing 177' 0' E by 40' 35' S
The past few weeks, I have been trying to predict in a manner more befitting to the profession of seismology with all the courtesy that entails ... But, What the hell ... I'll take this one because I think I've earned it !!
Duffy
RE: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Roger Hunter - 11-22-2016
(11-22-2016, 01:48 AM)Duffy Wrote:(11-16-2016, 12:22 AM)Duffy Wrote:(11-13-2016, 01:05 AM)Duffy Wrote:(11-10-2016, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote:(11-05-2016, 10:16 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J40)
Longitude .......... 177' 20' E
Latitude ............. 40' 16' S
Error .................. +/- 2'
Magnitude .......... 5.5 - 6.5
Location ............. East Coast of North Island, NZ
Start Date ........... 00:01 ut 6th Nov
Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut 6th Dec
Duffy (22:16 ut 5th Nov)
................................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... Space weather has been hitting hard on this one today ... 90% !
Duffy (22:57 ut 10th Nov)
............................................................................................................................................................................
Update ... High energy proton spike in ACE ( SIS ) monitor at 00:10 ut 13th Nov ... 177' E NZ 90% !
Duffy (01:05 ut 13th Nov)
.......................................................................................................................................................................
Combined data still indicating signals at approx 174' E by 35' S remain strong to heavy (North Island, NZ)
An observation, "not" prediction
Duffy ( 00:22 ut 16th Nov)
..................................................................................................................................................................
M 5.6 North Island of New Zealand 00:19 ut 22nd Nov at bearing 177' 0' E by 40' 35' S
The past few weeks, I have been trying to predict in a manner more befitting to the profession of seismology with all the courtesy that entails ... But, What the hell ... I'll take this one because I think I've earned it !!
Duffy
I agree but you need to understand that month long predictions for moderate quakes in seismic regions don't count for much.
Roger
RE: Prediction ( J40 ) 5 / 11 / 2016 - Duffy - 11-22-2016
I was partly being satirical with my comment, it doesn't count for much here because you are pitting long established geological and seismological forecasts against radio. I can appreciate this, why put a cat among the pigeons if the pigeons are happy as they are. I don't debate which region I should select, or level of magnitude I should chose, I just get a spike on my screen. And if I can match the same spike in data from days or weeks past, then I go where the spike tells me !
Scientist here tell me an honest scientific approach is what counts most, so I'm not blind to the fact that the resent 5.9 off North Island 177' E .. is a probable response on the same fault line to activity on 173' E , therefore an aftershock (or from my point of view, a precursor). However, the professor I am dealing with here is only interested in high numbers on a spreadsheet before he'll place one foot into my observatory. If claiming this gives me another number, then that's what I must do ... it counts for me !
Duffy