[Skywise]

(02-20-2015, 03:34 PM)Duffy Wrote: A couple of questions, Brian; if Radon is a constituent of electromagnetism, do you think it's theoretically possible to detect in the VLF spectrum, from a given frequency?.

There's a lot of facts about radon that really make it an unlikely player in causing the signal disturbances you see. Again, that doesn't invalidate the signals as possibly being related to quakes, just that radon does not play a roll.

The radon measurements used in studying earthquakes involve radon dissolved in ground water. So when you read about radon levels changing before an earthquake, they're talking about measurements in water wells or natural springs, not in the air.

On top of that, the amounts of radon being discussed are extremely small. A quick search found the following:

http://www.fujitaresearch.com/reports/earthquakes.html

Quote:Case Study Three: Kobe Earthquake, Japan (7)

Over the last twenty years the University of Tokyo and the Geological Society in Japan have monitored radon levels in groundwater in an effort to predict earthquakes in eastern Japan. One such well is located in the southern part of Nishinomiya city, about 30 km NE of the epicenter of the M=7.2 Kobe earthquake of 17 Jan 1995. The well was first monitored between 26 Nov and 02 Dec 1993, with continual monitoring starting on 27 Oct 1994.

During the 1993 observation period, concentrations of radon were stable at 20Bq/l. By the end of Nov 1994 levels had increased to 60Bq/l. On 7 Jan 1995 a huge increase in radon concentration was observed (to ca. 250Bq/l). These high levels dropped suddenly on 10 Jan, one week before the earthquake. By the time of the earthquake levels had returned to about 30 Bq/l, levels confirmed when the station came back on-line on 22 Jan (monitoring equipment had been damaged by the main shock).

To put some perspective on those numbers I need to explain what they mean. "Bq/l" is becquerels per liter. A becquerel is a unit of measure of radioactivity. Radioactivity is caused by the decay of radioactive elements, which radon is. One becquerel is one decay per second. So in the context of the quoted article 250Bq/l means 250 radon atoms are decaying per second in each liter of water. That's 250 atoms out of a whole liter of water, which if I did my math right, there are about 33,427,963,872,890,124,383,301,286.463491 molecules of water in a liter. So, a very tiny amount of radon.

Of course, that's only measuring the actual decaying particles. There's more radon than that waiting to decay. But the most stable isotope of radon has a half life of only 3.8235 days. That means that given a sample of radon, in 3.8235 days half of it has radioactively decayed. And half again in another 3.8235 days...etc.... After only 30 days, you only have 1/256th of the radon you started with.

As for radon released into the air, since we're already talking about such miniscule amounts, it's going to quickly get diluted into the atmosphere, like a fart in the wind. (did I say that? ) And as I mentioned previously radon is heavier than air. If it collects in any concentration, it's in low laying areas like basements and mines where there isn't much air circulation. Radon sinks to the ground and isn't likely to rise up 60km to the ionosphere without some updrafts to bring it there. I don't know of any updrafts that go that high. The highest thunderstorms only get 12km, maybe 15 km high. By way of comparison, the ozone layer is 20km-30km high, and it takes upwards of 2-5 years for CFC's emitted at ground level to reach the ozone layer where they start damaging it. And the once common R22 refrigerant CFC is lighter than air, not heavier like radon.

Finally, although I haven't confirmed this, but a reference I read says that the total amount of radon in the entirety of Earth's atmosphere is only a few tens of grams.

Given radon's short half life, how little of it there is, and how long it takes ground level emissions to mix in the atmosphere to even reach the ozone layer at 20km, it's hard to envision how any appreciable amount of radon could get up to the ionosphere at 60km and have any effect at all.

Sorry.

So, I think we need to look for some other way that your measurements might be related to earthquakes.

Brian