NCSN reported a Ml 3.3 about 40 km northwest of Penngrove, California
tonight just hours after the UT clock struck October 13. The parameters
of the event were:

ML 3.3 2001/10/13 05:14:38 UT 38.7N 122.7W ESE of The Geysers, CA

In the contest between Petra and Don, there is a clear winner
for this round. The event occurred within the time frame and magnitude
range of Don's forecast (since he didn't specify if he meant PDT or
UT, UT is assumed). The earthquake is slightly over the 40 km
radius, so the prediction is not perfect, but for a Ml 3.3, still
pretty good. Petra's forecast for a Ml 1.0-1.7 on the Rodgers
Creek fault between Oct 8 and 18 does not seem to apply to this
event.
Round two goes to Don. But there is still a long ways to go
before this contest is over.

Don had predicted:

Penngrove, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 10, 2001 at 18:11:04:

Magnitude: 2.3-3.8Ml
From: 10/13/2001 - To: 10/18/2001
Location: Penngrove, California
Lat: 38.3N - Long: 122.6W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. I think Petra is going to love this one although I must admit that
the one forecasted for Penngrove is a long shot.
Not a very long shot, but one never the less.

There should be a 2.3 to a 3.8Ml on 10/14/2001 at 38.3N/122.6W. This
is about 6 Km east of Penngrove. The radius on this is 40Km and the window
opens on 10/13/2001 and closes on 10/18/2001.

Petra had predicted:

Re: Penngrove, California Earthquake Forecast Petra Disagrees
Posted by Petra Challus on October 10, 2001 at 21:10:01:

In Reply to: Penngrove, California Earthquake Forecast posted by Don
In Hollister on October 10, 2001 at 18:11:04:

Hey Cowboy,

Here's my post from down below:

Rodgers Creek Fault Forecast
Posted by Petra Challus on October 08, 2001 at 10:06:28:
Magnitude: 1.0 - 1.7
From: 10/8/01 10:06AM PDT - To: 10/18/01 12:00 Midnight PDT