FAR-FIELD TRIGGERING FROM KAMCHATKA APPEARS RELATIVELY MODERATE

SUMMARY

Most of the larger events listed by NEIS since the two large earthquakes
in Kamchatka on Oct. 8 appear to fall into the far-field aftershock
category from that event. Earthquakes reported in Iceland (Ml 6.0, 5.2 IMO);
the U.K. (Ml 3.0); eastern Turkey (Ml 3-4.5); the Tonga/Fiji Islands
(more than 14 of Mb4.5-5.5); the Kuril Islands (Mw 6.1, 4.8 and aftershocks);
Lake Baykal (Mb 4.9); Tajikistan (Ml 4.2); off the East Coast of Honshu
(Mb 4.2, 4.3); Off the coast of Northern (Ml 3.0) and Southern
California (Ml 3.1); Vancouver Island (Ml 3.5); eastern Idaho (Ml 3.1);
events south of the Mariana (Mb 4.2, 5.2) and in the Bonin Islands south of
Japan (Ml 4.5); and two in the Northern Chile/Argentina region (Mb 5.5, 4.2)
all were among those expected in the far-field aftershock
forecast from Kamchatka.
Several areas which were expected to see increased activity
in that far-field forecast have yet to experience an event
listed by NEIS. These areas include: the Aleutians/Fox Islands;
the Ryukyu Islands, northern Luzon, Hawaii, Myanmar, Nepal, Gulf
of California, New Madrid, St. Lawrence Seaway, Romania, So. Iran,
areas in the Caribbean, So. Chile, the Republic of So. Africa
and the south Atlantic.

GLOBAL

The most active region of the globe seismically today was the
western Pacific. Earthquakes of Mb 5.2 and 4.8 occurred south of
the Marianas,a Mb 4.8 was observed in the Bonin Islands south of
Japan and a Mb 5.2 was reported from the Fiji Islands. The
Fiji/Tonga region has been very active since the Kamchatka
earthquakes with at least 14 quakes in the Mb4.5-5.5 range
in the past 2 days. Two earthquakes also occurred in the Mariana
Islands region of Mb 5.2 and 4.8. Two events of Mb>4 were reported
from the region east of Honshu (Mb 4.3, 4.2). A Mb 4.9
was observed in northern Sumatera.
In the western Hemisphere, two events of Mb 5.5 and 4.2 were
located in the northern Chile/Argentina region.

U.S./CANADA

It has been an active day in the western U.S. Tidal effects
are statistically strong in the region on or about the 10th of
October (see previous reports).
Five earthquakes of Ml>=3 have occurred in the contiguous
U.S. since the last report. Four of these occurred in the
California/Nevada region, the other was in southern Idaho.
The largest was a Ml 3.5 near Willits, CA. This is the largest
earthquake within 15 km of this location since April, 1988. Earthquakes
within 40 km are much more common. 66 such events of M>=3.3
have since records began. The last were in March and April, 2001
(Ml 3.5 and 3.8).
NEIS is reporting events of Ml 3.1 in the Hector Mine aftershock
zone and in eastern Idaho. Ml 3.0 earthquakes occurred near
Coso Junction and off the north Coast of California. None of
these were unusual events, but all had probability of occurring
on a given day of less than 0.1.
Other earthquakes of Ml>=2 in the U.S./Canada region occurred
in the California/Nevada area with a Ml 2.7 near Ocotillo;
a Ml 2.2 near Taft, a Ml 2.1 near San Clemente, a Ml 2.1
near Tres Pinos, and a Ml 2.0 aftershock of the Willits, CA
earthquake.
In the Rocky Mountain region, MBMG is reporting a Ml 2.8
in Central Montana this evening.
A small Ml 3.0 earthquake was reported in southern Alaska. No
other events of Ml>=2 have been reported from the U.S./Canada
region today.

NEW ZEALAND

An Mb 4.9 was recorded yesterday in the Central Kermadec Islands
in northern New Zealand. This area has had 5 events in the past week
at Mb>4.5 all at different located epicenters. Another event occurred
on North Island in a continuing series there.
The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

A strong geomagnetic storm began about 15:00 UT today (October 11).
This was apparently related to a CME which was forecast by SEC
to arrive in the earth's space environment today. Areas where
seismicity is most likely to be affected are sub- and anti-solar
and at high latitudes. These include regions within 20 degrees
longitude of 60W and 120E. Many areas, including most of the
northwestern Pacific subduction zone and the western South America
subduction zone are included in this area where maximum event magnitudes
may rise 0.5 units over the next two days.

There were no X- or M- class flares observed on the sun today.

SEC is expecting unsettled geomagnetic field conditions for the
next several days.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011011events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

The only tropical storm in the vicinity of North America is
currently off the southern coast of Oaxaca, Mexico. This storm,
Tropical Storm Manuel, is not expected to impact the seismicity
of North America in a substantial way.
For track-line information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200115.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 12 is 25 days after the previous New Moon.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02
India MB>=4.0 48 2.0 0.05
Yellowstone MB>=2.0 20 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Arctic MB>=4.0 -36 -2.3 0.05

Lowell Whiteside
October 11, 2001

EARTHQUAKE/FORECAST COMPARISONS

GLOBAL

OCEANIA

O: 10Oct2001 10:02:00 5.6N 32.8W MS=4.8 NEIS CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

O: 09Oct2001 14:35:56 54.1S 136.8W MB=5.4 NEIS PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

NEW ZEALAND

O: 10Oct2001 17:23:46 31.0S 179.2W MB=4.9 NEIS KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

O: 11Oct2001 09:38 40.1S 174.8E ML=3.6 IGNS SW of Wanganui, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Probably felt in the Wanganui area

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 10Oct2001 16:18:48 23.8S 179.8E MB=4.9 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
O: 10Oct2001 07:08:47 23.6S 179.9E MB=4.7 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

O: 11Oct2001 12:26:10 19.4S 175.6E MB=5.2 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

O: 09Oct2001 12:45:10 3.0S 142.8E MB=4.5 NEIS NR N CST NEW GUINEA, PNG.

O: 09Oct2001 20:42:06 23.1S 175.5W MB=5.0 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 09Oct2001 20:20:38 23.2S 175.3W MB=5.1 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 09Oct2001 20:19:55 23.1S 175.4W MB=4.9 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 09Oct2001 20:12:02 23.2S 175.6W MB=5.1 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 09Oct2001 20:08:13 23.1S 175.4W MB=4.8 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 09Oct2001 17:58:10 23.2S 175.5W MB=4.8 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 09Oct2001 17:45:33 23.2S 175.4W MB=5.6 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 10Oct2001 08:56:31 23.1S 175.5W MB=4.8 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION
O: 10Oct2001 03:47:19 23.2S 175.5W HN=0.0 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION

O: 09Oct2001 14:55:25 21.7S 174.5W MB=4.3 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 11Oct2001 21:06:52 12.0N 142.2E MB=5.2 NEIS SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
O: 11Oct2001 13:09:23 12.0N 142.1E MB=4.8 NEIS SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS

O: 10Oct2001 11:41:43 39.7N 141.4E MB=4.2 NEIS EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

O: 10Oct2001 10:04:19 35.1N 141.7E MB=4.3 NEIS NEAR E COAST HONSHU, JAPAN

O: 10oct2001 14:36:59 40.3N 069.7E Ms=4.0 ASC W of Khuzhand, Tajikistan
O: 10Oct2001 14:37:00 40.6N 69.7E MB=4.6 NEIS TAJIKISTAN

O: 11OCT2001 00:22:40 11.1S 114.1E SR=4.9 AEIC1 SW DENPASAR, INDONESIA

O: 09OCT2001 18:03:10 10.0S 116.4E SR=5.1 AEIC1 S PRAYA, INDONESIA

O: 11Oct2001 14:45:29 27.6N 141.6E MB=4.5 NEIS BONIN ISL, JAPAN REGION

O: 11Oct2001 06:16:13 0.3N 98.7E MB=4.9 NEIS N SUMATERA, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 12OCT2001 00:04 9.7S 78.6W ML=4.3 IGP Casma, Peru

O: 11OCT2001 05:18:43 13.1N 88.6W MC=3.9 CASC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
O: 11OCT2001 05:18:43 13.2N 88.8W MC=3.9 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 11OCT2001 09:05:56 9.9N 85.5W MC=3.9 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 12OCT2001 00:20:43 12.5N 88.2W MC=3.6 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 11OCT2001 09:06:00 9.9N 85.9W MC=3.8 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.

O: 11OCT2001 06:15:50 26.0S 68.8W ML=4.5 DGF E of EL SALVADOR, CHILE

O: 11OCT2001 19:46:33 23.3S 68.7W ML=4.2 DGF NW of TOCONAO, CHILE

O: 11Oct2001 19:40:53 15.7N 95.0W MB=4.3 NEIS NEAR COAST OAXACA, MEXICO

O: 11Oct2001 19:46:33 23.2S 68.7W MB=4.2 NEIS NORTHERN CHILE

EUROPE

O: 11OCT2001 23:40:36 38.7N 43.1E ML=3.0 KAN VAN,TURKEY

O: 11OCT2001 00:22:30 39.3N 40.0E ML=3.6 KAN TUNCELY, TURKEY

O: 10OCT2001 15:16: 2 35.1N 27.2E ML=3.6 NOA CRETE, GREECE

O: 10OCT2001 15:42: 2 35.5N 25.7E ML=3.5 NOA CRETE, GREECE
O: 10OCT2001 21:08:23 34.8N 26.1E ML=3.8 NOA CRETE, GREECE

O: 11OCT2001 03:44:57 37.6N 28.7E ML=3.9 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 11Oct2001 18:56:50 34.8N 116.3W ML=3.1 NEIS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 11OCT2001 18:56:50 34.8N 116.3W ML=3.1 SCSN SSW of Baker, CA
O: 11OCT2001 18:56:49 34.8N 116.3W ML=3.1 SCSN WNW of Ludlow, CA

O: 11OCT2001 20:26:00 34.9N 119.2W ML=2.2 SCSN SE of Taft, CA

O: 11OCT2001 10:20:13 35.8N 118.4W ML=1.8 SCSN N of Lake Isabella, CA

O: 11Oct2001 00:15:04 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.8 NEIS CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER
O: 10Oct2001 22:11:01 36.1N 117.9W ML=3.0 NEIS CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER
O: 10OCT2001 22:11:01 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.9 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 11OCT2001 0:15:04 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.7 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 11OCT2001 13:31:04 36.7N 121.4W ML=2.1 NCSN SSW of Tres Pinos, CA

O: 11OCT2001 19:09:47 38.5N 117.1W ML=1.7 NCSN N of Tonopah, NV

O: 11OCT2001 23:45:25 39.4N 123.3W ML=3.5 NCSN SE of Willits, CA
O: 12OCT2001 2:14:35 39.4N 123.3W ML=2.0 NCSN SE of Willits, CA
O: 12OCT2001 0:40:53 39.4N 123.3W ML=1.9 NCSN SE of Willits, CA

O: 11OCT2001 19:13:18 40.2N 117.1W ML=1.8 NCSN SE of McCoy, NV

O: 10Oct2001 23:49:44 40.4N 125.1W MD=3.0 NEIS OFF COAST OF N CALIFORNIA
O: 10OCT2001 23:49:44 40.4N 125.1W ML=3.0 NCSN WNW of Punta Gorda, CA

O: 12OCT2001 02:27:41 31.7N 115.9W ML=2.7 SCSN S of Ocotillo, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 11OCT2001 08:48:49 50.0N 130.1W ML=3.5 PGC WSW Pt. Hardy BC

O: 10OCT2001 06:27:58 52.0N 117.8W ML=0.8 PGC S Jasper AB

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 10OCT2001 13:03:18 38.2N 112.3W ML=1.8 UUSN NW of Circleville, UT

O: 11Oct2001 05:47:28 43.0N 111.5W ML=3.1 NEIS EASTERN IDAHO

O: 09OCT2001 22:31:58 44.7N 111.0W ML=1.4 UUSN E of W. Yellowstone, MT

O: 11OCT2001 20:59:05 46.0N 109.0W MD=2.8 MBMG MONTANA

O: 11OCT2001 10:59:06 44.7N 110.7W MD=0.5 MBMG MONTANA

ALASKA

O: 11Oct2001 09:44:23 60.7N 151.8W ML>0.0 NEIS KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
O: 11OCT2001 09:44:24 60.7N 152.0W ML=3.0 AEIC WSW of Anchorage, Alaska

O: 11Oct2001 08:23:27 62.1N 150.6W ML>3.0 NEIS CENTRAL ALASKA