There's that old mag-gap question. Petra asked me to think about
this one, but I didn't think there would actually be such a problem
(in reality) between Petra's and Don's predictions. Don had
anticipated an earthquake between Oct 13 and Oct 18 within 40 km of
38.3N 122.6W of Ml 2.3-3.8. Petra, on the other hand, had expected
an earthquake of 1.0-1.7 on the Rodgers Creek fault between the 8th
and 18th of October. So, the contest was on.

The first volley in the contest occurred tonight. NCSN is reporting
the following earthquake:

ML 1.8 2001/10/11 20:12:57 38.561N 122.535W ESE of Calistoga, CA

Source:
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

This event is the one Petra was wondering about when she said:

"This time I think I'm going to split hairs with you. We have a "mag gap"
going on here. My top level is 1.7 and your start is 2.3. So I'm not going
to concede victory to you if its a 1.9 for instance, nor should you be able
to claim it if it arrives under your expected magnitude."

Let's hope that something clearly favoring one or the other
prediction comes up so we don't have to choose on the basis of
this event.