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Posted by Lowell on October 11, 2001 at 17:41:40:
On October 9, Don in Hollister posted the following earthquake
prediction (see posts #9862 and 9878): "Lavic, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 09, 2001 at 22:45:33: Magnitude: 2.7-4.0Ml
From: 10/102001 - To: 10/14/2001
Location: Lavic, California
Lat: 34.7N - Long: 116.4W - Range: 40Km Hi Lowell. You are correct. Here is the corrected forecast. Take Care..
Don in creepy town" This morning SCSN reported the following earthquake:
ML 3.1 2001/10/11 11:56:49 34.822N 116.355W 21 km WNW of Ludlow, CA Source: http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html This event is less than 15 km from Don's predicted epicenter, within
his time window and in the middle of his expected magnitude range.
The last event of M>=3.1 within the prescribed 40 km distance was
a Ml 3.1 on Aug 22, 2001. The area has been noticibly quiet for more than
a month, although a Ml 3.0 did occur in this region on October 2. During
the period since January 1, 12 of 57 intervals of 5 day window length have
had such an event. This is a probability of success of about 0.2 or
odds of success about 1 in 5. Grade A.
Not bad for a fraud, huh. By the way it seems doubtful Don is getting
his information off some USGS hacked pagei as dib speculates. After all, when was the
last time you heard of a correct prediction from the USGS?
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