Way back on September 18, Don made a forecast for the United Kingdom as
such:

"Killington, United Kingdom Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 18, 2001 at 11:48:03:

Magnitude: 1.5-3.0
From: 09/21/2001PDT - To: 09/26/2001PDT
Location: Killington, United Kingdom
Lat: 54.3N - Long: 2.6W - Range: 80Km

Hi All. Just so no one thinks I\222m picking on the West Coast I thought it
would be interesting if I could find another probable location for a small
quake. I thought it should be a place where we never hear anything about a
quake occurring there, but a place that everyone should know.

Low and behold I found just such a place. It's the United Kingdom (England.)

It should occur at 54.3N/2.6W. This is about 1Km NW of Killington, England,
or 75Km NNE of Liverpool, England.

Magnitude for this quake should be 1.5-3.0Ml and should occur on 09/23/2001.
The window will open on 09/21/2001 and close on 09/26/2001. The radius on
this is 80Km.

It should be fun to see how close I get to this one, or better yet how far
off I am. Take Care...Don in creepy town"

Since Don wanted to "see how far off I am", I thought you might
be interested that BGS had recorded an earthquake of Ml 3.0 in
the general vicinity this morning. The parameters are given as:

10OCT2001 O2:52:25.3 51.698N 3.253W ML=3.0 BARGOED,MID GLAMORGAN

Source:
http://www.gsrg.nmh.ac.uk/recbrit.html

A Ml 1.5 also occurred two days ago slightly southwest of this location.
These are the only events listed since Don made his prediction.

Our data base, which admittedly is quiet incomplete for this
magnitude event in England, shows the last event which was larger
in an an area including both Don's prediction and today's event
occurred on 25 October, 1999 with Ml 3.6. The earthquake this morning
was felt at intensity 4+. For additional detail see:

http://www.gsrg.nmh.ac.uk/alert_info.htm

I am sure Roger Musson can provide more and better information on
this event and prior events in the area.

At any rate, Don's forecast was for an event in this magnitude
range, but more than 200 km to the NE and was off by at least 2 weeks.
Since events of this intensity appear to occur with interevent times
of around 1-2 years in the area, the odds of a correct random "guess"
within 15 days would be about about 1 in 36 (daily probability around
0.0018 X 15 = 0.0027. Not too bad Don, but don't quit your day job yet.

What can Roger tell us about this earthquake?

By the way, other European observatories put the Ml between 3.3 and 3.6/