STRONG EARTHQUAKES HIT KAMCHATA (MW>6)

GLOBAL

Two moderately strong earthquakes appear to have occurred in the
region of Kamchatka this afternoon at about 18:20 and 18:14 UT.
A geomagnetic storm had begun earlier while this area was exactly
anti-solar and may have had an affect on the timing of these events.
Two foreshocks were observed in the same area earlier a Mb 4.8
and Ms 4.9. Kamchatka is highly volcanic and volcanism often follows
strong geomagnetic storms between 4 and 8 days later. It is not
possible to tell at this time if these events are related to
the recent geomagnetic storms, however.
Kamchatka is in an area where tidal effects are statistically
correlated with increased seismicity at this point in the lunar
month (see list below). This is a period when seismicity in many areas
is statistically correlated with the lunar month.
In other global activity, the largest event reported was a Mb 5.1
in Sulawesi. A Mb 4.3 was also reported from northern Iran.
The largest felt event in Israel in more than 2 months occurred
as a Ml 4.3 in the Dead Sea area this morning. Greece and Turkey
also saw moderately high levels of seismicity during the past
24 hours.

U.S./CANADA

Seismicity in the U.S./Canada regions has been relatively quiet
since the last report. The most active area in California/Nevada
has been the region near Ocotillo in So. California (Ml 2.1, 2.1).
The strongest earthquake in the region was a Ml 2.8 SSW of Santa
Cruz Isl, So. California. In Northern California a Ml 2.3 was
recorded near Navarro Head north of the Geysers.
A swarm of mild tremors was recorded in the Jackson Lake area
of Wyoming this morning (Ml 2.3, 2.3, 2.1). A mild quake which
is presently unlocated (PNSN records it at 41N 115W, ml 4.0)
may have occurred in the Idaho or northern Nevada area earlier
today, but has not been confirmed.
NEIS is also reporting a Ml 1.9 in South Carolina this morning.
One earthquake of Ml>=3 has occurred in Alaska in the area
near Anchorage (Ml 3.4). No earthquakes of ML>=3 have occurred
in Hawaii in the past three weeks.

NEW ZEALAND

A series of mild earthquakes is occurring off the east coast
of Hawke's Bay in New Zealand. These have included at least
two events of Ml>=4. A smaller event was felt this morning
near Wellington (Ml 3.3).

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

A moderate geomagnetic storm began today at about 13:00 UT. Areas
most likely to be affected by this storm are sub- and anti-solar
(within 20 degrees longitude). Seismicity might be expected to
increase in areas within 20 degrees longitude of 160E and 20W. This
includes Kamchatka, portions of the mid-Atlantic ridge, the east
coast of Honshu, the Mariana Islands, and the Solomon Islands to
New Zealand. Event magnitudes may increase up to 1.0 units over
the next two days.
No M- or X-class solar flares were observed on the sun today.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011008events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Iris is making landfall at this time on the north shore
of Honduras and the east coast of Belize and Guatemala. Iris has
rapidly increased intensity over the past day and is now a Category
4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. This is an extremely
powerful storm and is likely to cause considerable damage in the
area. Seismicity may continue to be enhanced along the Guatemala-
Mexico subduction zone over the next day. For trackline data see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200111.html

Hurricane Jerry continues to follow Iris and is expected to
be south of Cuba as a category 1 hurricane by Wednesday. For trackline
data see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200112.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 9 is 22 days after the previous New Moon.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Aleutians MB>=4.0 27 2.0 0.05
Geysers MB>=2.0 5 1.9 0.05
Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 55 2.4 0.04
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 70 3.6 0.01
Siberia MB>=4.0 38 2.1 0.05
Utah2 MB>=2.0 27 2.7 0.02
Washington MB>=0.0 95 3.2 0.01
Central California MB>=2.0 10 2.5 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 20 2.5 0.03
Global MB>=5.0 7 2.4 0.04
Hawaii MB>=2.0 20 2.9 0.02
Iran MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05
San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.3 0.05
San Andreas MB>=2.0 43 1.9 0.05
San Andreas MB>=3.0 40 2.8 0.02
So Asia MB>=4.0 46 3.3 0.01
Turkey MB>=4.0 11 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -1.9 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

MIDDLE EAST

O: 08OCT2001 11:25:51 30.5N 35.3E ML=4.3 ISR Arava Valley, Dead Sea, Israel
Note: This is the largest felt earthquake in Israel in more than 2 months.
For information on earthquakes in Israel see:
http://www.gii.co.il/html/seis/seis_fs.html

NEW ZEALAND

O: 8Oct2001 08:13 41.3S 174.6E ML=3.3 IGNS W of Wellington, N.Z.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 08Oct2001 16:46:37 0.4N 124.9E mb=5.1 GSR MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAW

O: 08OCT2001 02:23 35.3N 133.3E Mj=4.0 NIED WESTERN_TOTTORI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 08OCT2001 01:17:21 33.4N 60.0E Ms=4.3 GSSC NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN

O: 08Oct2001 18:14:24 52.7N 160.2E mb=5.7 NEI OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 08Oct2001 18:20:38 52.7N 160.1E mb=5.7 NEI OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 08Oct2001 06:18:49 52.6N 160.6E MS=4.8 GSR OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 07Oct2001 22:46:22 52.5N 160.3E MS=4.9 GSR OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 08OCT2001 03:59:57 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.5 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 08OCT2001 03:39:20 17.0N 100.2W ML=6.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 08OCT2001 03:39:20 17.2N 99.8W ML=5.5 NEIS COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX

O: 08OCT2001 12:31:22 12.3N 87.8W MC=4.0 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

EUROPE

O: 08OCT2001 14:38:13 37.0N 28.0E ML=3.7 KAN GOKOVA, TURKEY

O: 08OCT2001 14:22:25 40.8N 31.4E ML=3.1 KAN DUZCE, TURKEY

O: 07OCT2001 07:06:54 41.1N 20.9E ML=3.3 NOA GREECE

O: 07OCT2001 13:56:46 36.5N 26.8E ML=3.8 NOA GREECE
O: 07OCT2001 22:39:12 36.6N 26.8E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE

O: 08OCT2001 00:12:53 35.0N 25.5E ML=4.0 NOA GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 00:18: 9 34.9N 25.4E ML=3.9 NOA GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 01:03: 9 34.9N 25.5E ML=3.9 NOA GREECE

O: 08OCT2001 02:18:54 35.1N 27.2E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 02:26:27 35.6N 27.3E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 08OCT2001 11:55:58 31.9N 115.8W ML=2.3 SCSN S of Ocotillo, CA
O: 08OCT2001 02:42:35 32.1N 116.2W ML=2.1 SCSN SSW of Ocotillo, CA

O: 08OCT2001 04:31:05 33.8N 119.6W ML=2.8 SCSN SSW of Santa Cruz Is., CA

O: 08OCT2001 14:11:08 35.3N 118.6W ML=1.5 SCSN NW of Tehachapi, CA

O: 08OCT2001 16:32:52 35.8N 118.4W ML=1.9 SCSN NNE of Lake Isabella, CA

O: 08OCT2001 11:16:00 38.4N 122.4W ML=1.8 NCSN SSW of Yountville, CA

O: 08OCT2001 11:13:33 39.1N 123.6W ML=2.2 NCSN ESE of Navarro Head, CA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 7OCT2001 3:15:00 38.1N 112.7W ML=2.4 UUSN SSW of Beaver, UT

O: 7OCT2001 2:54:53 44.6N 110.7W ML=2.3 UUSN SE of Madison Junc., WY

O: 08OCT2001 13:47:15 44.8N 112.8W MD=2.3 MBMG MONTANA

O: 08OCT2001 03:16:53 45.7N 112.1W MD=1.4 MBMG MONTANA
O: 08OCT2001 02:16:59 45.7N 112.1W MD=2.1 MBMG MONTANA

O: 08OCT2001 04:40:12 43.3N 110.9W ML=2.1 USBR SSW of Wilson, WY
O: 08OCT2001 05:12:39 43.3N 110.9W ML=2.3 USBR SSW of Wilson, WY
O: 08OCT2001 05:24:04 43.3N 110.9W ML=2.0 USBR SSW of Wilson, WY

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 08Oct2001 00:23:00 33.3N 81.6W LG=1.9 NEIS SOUTH CAROLINA

ALASKA

O: 08OCT2001 10:09:13 61.3N 152.1W ML=3.6 AEIC W of Anchorage, Alaska