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The effect of hurricanes on plate motion (and earthquakes)
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Posted by Lowell on September 19, 2001 at 20:10:09:
This is in response to a post yesterday from Kate (I think it was Kate). Here is a general summary of current theories on how storms can affect distant (and local seismicity). This post is speculative and contains back-of-the-envelop calculations which could be questioned, but the general idea should not be abandoned due to the LOD and GPS observations. As you know, the earth's crust is made up of a series of large plates. These plates move about the surface of the earth by being pushed by spreading oceans at mid-ocean ridges and by their own weight pulling them into the earth at subduction zones. A very small amount of the motion is due to convection currents under the plates. The movement of these plate is excrutiatingly slow. Motion on the San Andreas is on the order of 2-3 cm per year. In one day, the actual motion is therefore about 100th this - about the width of a hair. In a second, the plates may move past each other about the distance of 10 atoms set in a row. But each plate moves as a unit, it does not distort as it moves, or we would see distortion features within the plate (such as mountains etc.). Therefore a force exerted on the plate in one place will affect the motion of the entire plate. Geologists are entirely concerned with "geology" - the rocks that make up the earth. This prejudice has prevented many from realizing that the plates actually have two surfaces - one at the bottom of the plate and the second at the top of the plate. Each of which can be operated on by external forces such as fluid drag. At the bottom the plastic material has about the deforming (viscosity) ability of a wrecking ball. At the top the air has the deforming ability of a gas. At the bottom the motion of the plastic aesthenosphere is measured in cm per year. At the top, the motion is measured in miles (or km) per hour. Energy is transformed from kinetic energy of these two masses to motion of the tectonic plate. Let's see how much motion this is: Kinetic energy is governed by the equation: K.E = 1/2mv*v - note that the mass here is relatively minor compared with the velocity of the mass. So, if we have a convection cell under the U.S. moving at 3 cm/year (about 0.000003 m/hr or 0.0000000003 km/hr) and this has a density of 5 g/cc over an interface the size of the U.S. - about 9 million sq. km, the an approximation to the kinetic energy imparted to the plate in a second by this convection is about 1/2*5*9million*0.0000000003*0.0000000003 ignoring units which will be the same in the comparison to come This number is 0.000000000002. Now we can compare this with the energy from a storm surge on the coast of Florida. The storm surge is moving at about 10 km/hour with a density of 1 g/cc over an interface covering about 10km X 200KM - about 2000 sq km. We can find the energy of this storm surge - 1/2*1*2000*10*10 = 100000 units of energy (units are the same as in calcuation above). Even if we look only at the energy imparted by the wind which is moving at 150 km/hr over an area of 100 km by 100 km - the density is much smaller however - around 0.001 g/cc so the equivalent factor for wind energy transferred to kinetic energy of the plate is about 1/2*0.001*10000*150*150 = 112,500 units of energy, about the same as the storm surge. But the important thing to note here is that the amount of kinetic energy which can be transferred to the plate through landfall of a hurricane is vastly greater than the kinetic energy transferred to the plate in the same time (one second) by all the convective forces operating on the bottom of the plate. This means that the motion of the plate can easily be affect or even reversed temporarily by hurricanes hitting the plate. There is plenty of evidence that this does, in fact occur. The time it takes the earth to rotate through a complete day has been meticulously measured for decades. We know this period within microseconds for each day - this is referred to as LOD (Length of Day). Examination of this data has shown that the earth rotation slows and speeds up in response mostly to weather phenomena such as hurricanes. Since hurricanes do not affect the ocean floor, the only area where they would have a direct interaction with the earth would be where they hit land. But what is the mechanism that causes the earth to slow or speed up (depending on the direction the hurricane is moving)? The hurricane must be imparting a substantial motion to the land as it strikes. This in turn, moves the plate which affects the motion of the earth on it's axis. My first experience with the moving power of winds occurred many years ago when I was hitch-hiking up the east African Rift valley and found myself spending the day and evening in the ruins of Zimbabwe, an ancient city in southern Africa. High above the city is the Acropolis where the local people worshipped. On this day, I decided to walk up to the Acropolis. Once there, a strong storm blew in. After being hit by lightning and lying on the ground for minutes before waking up, I sought a way off the mountain. The road had been washed away, so I decided to take a ravine down the side of the mountain. The ravine got narrower and narrower until the only way to move down it was to press the two sides and chimney down. It was then I realized the entire mountain was perceptibly shaking - you could feel the mountain move with the wind. If wind can move mountains, then they can move plates. Since the plate moves as a whole, the motion imparted in Florida is seen in California. During a recent spate of hurricanes several years ago,GPS measurements showed an actual reversal of relative motion between the North American Plate and the Pacific plate. This was interpreted by some as a slow earthquake in Washington/Oregon, but was observable throughout the entire western U.S. The plate had changed it's motion, probably due to the hurricanes on the eastern Seaboard. If the motion of the plate changes so does the potential for earthquakes. If there is no relative motion, then the possibility of earthquakes is considerably reduced. If the motion increases, so should the seismic hazard. I should mention that strong storm systems can also affect seismicity locally. Pushing the N.American plate to the west, as many hurricanes would do, tends to open up faults on the mid-Atlantic ridge allowing stronger than normal earthquakes to occur there. There is also some evidence that the low pressure associated with hurricanes may reduce load and allow a "springing" action to the land that results in an earthquake. This is all speculative, but there seem to be sufficient observations to work on the premise that an effect is possible if not likely.
Follow Ups:
● Re: The effect of hurricanes on plate motion (and earthquakes) - Bill in AZ 15:37:35 - 9/20/2001 (9561) (0)
● Case study - Hurricane Andrew - Lowell 20:53:38 - 9/19/2001 (9538) (1)
● Re: Case study - Hurricane Andrew - Kate 08:39:14 - 9/20/2001 (9551) (0)
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