Don's Martinez CA prediction - preliminary evalutation
Posted by Lowell on September 18, 2001 at 09:13:00:

An earthquake of Ml 2.2 was recorded near Berkeley, CA this morning.
This event had parameters (NCSN):

01/09/18 15:08:52 37.91N 122.29W 4.7 2.2Md B* 4 km NNW of Berkeley, CA

The only prediction Don had made recently which had gone unfulfilled
was for an event in this area.
Don had expected an earthquake at 38.0N 122.1W or 38.1N 121.9W sometime
between the 13th and 17 of September with Ml between 2.3 and 3.7.
This event is 20-30 km of the expected epicenter(s), well within
the expected 40 km range; 0.1 units smaller than the expected magnitude
range (I usually consider a magnitude within 0.1 units of magnitude
within the range because there is a +/- 0.2 unit error on any determined
magnitude) and occurs 8 hours outside the time window. Not perfect,
but not bad either. Grade B+.

Don's Complete prediction was:

Martinez, California +2 Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 10, 2001 at 20:49:50:
Magnitude: 2.3-3.5Ml
From: 09/11/2001 - To: 09/16/2001
Location: Martinez, Caifornia
Lat: 38.0N - Long: 122.1W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. Being as how I haven't had my usual raw onion and garlic sandwich
with a Corona Beer chaser I'm going way out on a limb this time.

A 2.3-3.7Ml at 38.0N/122.1W (3 miles SE of Martinez, California) on 09/13/2001.
Window opens on 09/11/2001 and closes on 09/16/2001.

A 2.3-3.5Ml at 38.1N/121.9W (8 miles NW of Pittsburg, California) on 09/14/2001
Window opens on 09/12/2001 and closes on 09/17/2001.

A 2.3-3.5Ml at 38.9N/122.7W (10 miles SW of Clear Lake, California) on
09/15/2001. Window opens on 09/13/2001 and closes on 09/18/2001.

The radius on all quakes is 40Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town


Follow Ups:
     ● Don's Predicted Earthquake of Ml 3.0 occurred this afternoon near Clear Lake CA - Lowell  15:42:23 - 9/18/2001  (9519)  (0)