This is just a short evaluation of the far-field forecast from
the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge events of Sept 2, 2001, the New Zealand
earthquake of Aug 21, 2001 and the South Indian Ocean earthquake
of Sept 7, 2001. In both cases, I am ignoring the detailed forecast
and just concentrating on the statistics at this time.

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge (PAR) earthquake

This earthquake occurred on 2 September, 2001 with Ms 6.3. It was
expected that far-field triggering would be moderate because of the
relatively small magnitude.
The background rate of earthquakes of Mb>=4 in the NEIS catalog
within the distance bands described in the far-field forecasts
from the location of the PAR earthquake is about 12%. That is,
12% of global events fall within one of the distance bands in
a given random 10-day period.
During the period Sept 2 to Sept 13, 2001, 42 of 168 earthquakes
of Ml>=4 fell within the specified distance ranges. This is 25%
of the occurring events at this magnitude in the NEIS catalog, representing
an approximate doubling of seismicity at Mb>=4 in the specified
distances from the PAR earthquake. This is considerably less than
we have been seeing from larger earthquakes (usually 30-50% fall
within the distance ranges). It is likely the decrease in triggering
is due to the relatively small magnitude of the mainshock.

Earthquake off the Coast of New Zealand

This earthquake occurred on 21 August, 2001 with Mw 7.2. Far-field
triggering was expected to be considerable, however the earthquake
lay on the low end of the magnitude range where triggering was
to be expected.
The background rate of earthquakes of Mb>=4 in the NEIS catalog
within the distance bands described in the far-field forecast
from the location of the New Zealand earthquake is about 11%. That
is, 11% of global events fall within one of the distance bands
in a given random 10-day period.
During the period August 21 to September 1, 49 of 160 earthquakes
of Ml>=4 fell within the specified distance ranges. This is 30%
of the occurring events of this magnitude in the NEIS catalog, representing
nearly a tripling of seismicity at Mb>=4 in the specified
distances from the New Zealand earthquake. This is about what
might be expected for an event of this size.

Earthquake in South Indian Ocean

This earthquake occurred on 7 September, 2001 with Ms 6.0. Far-field
triggering was expected to be slight because of the small size of the
event, however a far-field forecast was produced because of it's unusual
location.
The background rate of earthquakes of Mb>=4 in the NEIS catalog
within the distance bands described in the far-field forecast
from the location of the New Zealand earthquake is about 14%. That
is, 14% of global events fall within one of the distance bands
in a given random 10-day period.
During the period September 7 to September 14, 2001 (this forecast
was for a 7-day aftershock sequence instead of 10), 19 of 107 earthquakes
of Ml>=4 fell within the specified distance ranges. This is 18%
of the occurring events of this magnitude in the NEIS catalog. The
difference between 18% and 14% is small. It seems, then that at
this magnitude level far-field triggering was very slight if it
occurred at all.

SUMMARY

On the basis of these results, it appears that there is a continuum
of far-field triggering, from very little at Mw 6 (background 14% vs 18%
after event in distance windows) to slight at Mw 6.3 (background 12% vs
25% after event in distance windows) to quite significant at Mw 7.2
(Background 11% vs. 30% after event in distance windows).