Hi 2 Cents. It was sort of a combination of two things. One being was I didn't intend on discouraging others from making forecast, or predictions. That was never my intent and I hope that isn't what happened.

The main reason for requesting help was I was hopping someone may see a trend. I know that in some areas the quakes are occurring early and in others they are occurring late. I have a partial answer for that, but have no idea if it's the correct one or not.

The one's I miss can be one of two things. The first is that there is insufficient stress in the area to cause a quake, and the other is that it's not ready to break. At present time I have no way of knowing which one is correct.

I have been criticized for using a tight window in regards to location and time and that I would get more correct one's by making the window larger. My interest is not in trying to see how many I can get correct, but in the accuracy of the forecast. This also tends to cut down the probability of being correct by chance. I look for accuracy in the forecast and also to prove to others and myself as well that the material I'm using works, and with more work in refining it, it can become more accurate. If I forecast a 6.0Md for Hollister and the quake centers in San Francisco the people in Hollister are going to be relived, but the people in San Francisco are going to be a little upset.

I have thought about using a probability and may start doing that later on. For right now however I'm going to stick with, it either occurs, or it doesn't. Take Care…Don in creepy