Don's earthquake in Southern California finally came through - a few
hours late, but otherwise quiet precise.

SCEC is locating the following event this morning:

ML 2.9 2001/09/03 11:13:49 34.4N 118.6W SW of Valencia, CA

Don had said:

"Santa Clarita, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on August 24, 2001 at 11:33:53:

Magnitude: 2.5-3.7??
From: 08/28/2001PDT - To: 09/02/2001PDT
Location: Santa Clarita, California
Lat: 34.4N - Long: 118.7W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. This forecast has a couple of factors that make the determination
of the magnitude a little tricky. You might say the magnitude is a variable
magnitude. The epicenter of the quake should be at 34.4N/118.7W. This is
about 5 miles west of Santa Clarita and should occur on 08/30/2001.
The radius on this is 40Km. The window opens on 08/28/2001 and closes
on 09/02/2001.

The magnitude is 2.5Md to 3.7Md. However in the event of a geomagnetic
storm on or about 08/29/2001, or a hurricane on the east coast the magnitude
could be greater. As to how much greater is the tricky part. I would say
that at the max it shouldn't be over a 5.7Md. More likely around 4.7Md.
Take Care...Don in creepy town"

This Ml 2.9 occurred less than 10 km from the predicted epicenter,
within 11 hours of the time window and within the expected magnitude
range.

There have been 4 days on which an earthquake has occurred within
the expected distance and magnitude ranges during the year 2001.
The probability of a correct hit on the date expected is therefore
about 0.010, the probability of a hit within 6 days of the correct
date would be 0.10 (about 1 in 10 odds). Although not perfect, not
too bad. Grade A-

P.S. The small quake yesterday did turn out to be a foreshock after
all. There was a second small (Ml 1.5) today in the general area.

Question to Don: Is this the end of the activity in Southern
California for now or do you anticipated a larger event yet
in the next few days?

• California earthquake listing